Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 26

Lugo–Ibiza

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 February 2023 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Anxo Carro, Lugo

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lugo		Ibiza
16	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	6
5	Offsides	2
62%	Possession	38%
413	Passes	242
333	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lugo 1.27 · Ibiza 0.80. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Lugo 16 · Ibiza 7; on target 5 and 1.
Lugo kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Aitor Gorostegui→

6.50

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 34.6%: “Lugo to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 32.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.02 for Lugo, 0.98 for Ibiza.
The highest double chance value is 67.4% (1X — Lugo win or draw).
These values were computed from 284 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lugo to win34.6%

Draw32.8%

Ibiza to win32.6%

When the model has said 30–35% in the past, 1,976 of 6,366 predictions were correct (31.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Lugo lead at half-time36.9%

Level at half-time50.0%

Ibiza lead at half-time13.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Lugo ahead or level86.9%

12 — not level at half-time50.0%

X2 — level or Ibiza ahead63.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 284 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lugo: at least 13Actual: 15
Ibiza: at least 11Actual: 18

Corners

Lugo: at least 3Actual: 6
Ibiza: at least 5Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lugo score1.27

Attack: Lugo score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ibiza concede 37% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ibiza score0.80

Attack: Ibiza score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lugo concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.80 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.7%0–013.2%1–013.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.