League · Germany

2. Bundesliga 2025-26 statistics

2025-26 season

Matches played: 306
Goals per match: 2.93
Home win: 46%
Draw: 24%
Away win: 30%
3+ goals: 58%
Both teams scored: 59%

Table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	FC Schalke 04	34	21	7	6	50	31	+19	70
2	SV Elversberg	34	18	8	8	64	39	+25	62
3	SC Paderborn 07	34	18	8	8	59	45	+14	62
4	Hannover 96	34	16	12	6	60	44	+16	60
5	SV Darmstadt 98	34	13	13	8	57	45	+12	52
6	1. FC Kaiserslautern	34	16	4	14	52	47	+5	52
7	Hertha BSC	34	14	9	11	47	44	+3	51
8	1. FC Nürnberg	34	12	10	12	47	45	+2	46
9	VfL Bochum	34	11	11	12	49	47	+2	44
10	Karlsruher SC	34	12	8	14	53	64	-11	44
11	Dynamo Dresden	34	11	8	15	54	53	+1	41
12	Holstein Kiel	34	11	8	15	44	48	-4	41
13	Arminia Bielefeld	34	10	9	15	53	51	+2	39
14	1. FC Magdeburg	34	12	3	19	52	58	-6	39
15	Eintracht Braunschweig	34	10	7	17	36	54	-18	37
16	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	34	10	7	17	49	68	-19	37
17	Fortuna Düsseldorf	34	11	4	19	33	53	-20	37
18	Preußen Münster	34	6	12	16	38	61	-23	30

The table is computed from match results; matches decided by forfeit count with the score declared by the federation. Points deducted or awarded separately are not reflected. Only regular-season matches count — play-offs and relegation matches are excluded.

Teams in this league

Every team in this season's fixture list. Unlike the standings table, teams that have not played yet also appear here.

Season simulation

The remaining fixtures were played out 10,000 times using the model's current probabilities. Percentages below are how often each team finished in that position.

Team	Title	Top 4	Bottom 3	Pts (avg)
1. FC Nürnberg	33.3%	70.4%	0.2%	59.5
Hertha BSC	10.2%	39.1%	1.2%	53.9
VfL Wolfsburg	9.6%	38.3%	1.3%	53.8
Arminia Bielefeld	8.1%	35.9%	1.6%	53.0
Dynamo Dresden	5.6%	29.1%	2.8%	51.8
Hannover 96	5.9%	29.3%	2.4%	51.8
VfL Bochum	4.9%	26.2%	2.7%	51.3
FC St. Pauli	4.2%	21.7%	3.8%	50.2
SV Darmstadt 98	4.3%	22.2%	3.8%	50.1
1. FC Kaiserslautern	3.3%	18.8%	4.8%	49.4
Karlsruher SC	3.3%	18.4%	5.4%	49.3
Holstein Kiel	2.9%	16.7%	5.8%	48.8
Energie Cottbus	2.5%	15.3%	6.1%	48.6
1. FC Magdeburg	1.3%	10.4%	10.4%	46.7
Eintracht Braunschweig	0.6%	6.2%	15.3%	44.4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth	0.1%	2.1%	34.1%	40.7
1. FC Heidenheim	0.0%	0.0%	98.2%	24.3
VfL Osnabrück	0.0%	0.0%	99.9%	17.9

Method: ratings are frozen as of the run date; ties break by points-GD-goals, country-specific rules not applied. Pairings below the publishing threshold use the model's prior rating. The table refreshes whenever the script is re-run.

Generated: 2026-08-23 · 3 · 10,000

The model's record in this league

The model's claim is not “I know every match” — it is “I know where I'm confident”. Measured in this league:

Match result
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	374	57%
≥ 60%	107	68%
≥ 70%	22	73%

Double chance
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 75%	818	79%
≥ 80%	214	86%
≥ 85%	60	88%

Goals markets
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	2199	60%
≥ 55%	1920	61%
≥ 60%	1254	63%

And if it had to answer every match?

Model: 49%
Always pick home: 44%
Picking at random: 33%
Reachable ceiling: 75%

Why that ceiling is not 100%: 25% of matches in this league end in a draw, and a draw is almost never the single most likely outcome on its own. So one “accuracy” figure cannot be read on its own — it is read next to these anchors.

Matches measured: 1149. The thresholds were not cherry-picked — all of them are shown. Incorrect predictions are included and none are hidden.

Full track record →