League · Germany

2. Bundesliga 2023-24 statistics

2023-24 season

Matches played: 306
Goals per match: 3.09
Home win: 46%
Draw: 23%
Away win: 31%
3+ goals: 61%
Both teams scored: 59%

Table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	FC St. Pauli	34	20	9	5	62	36	+26	69
2	Holstein Kiel	34	21	5	8	65	39	+26	68
3	Fortuna Düsseldorf	34	18	9	7	72	40	+32	63
4	Hamburger SV	34	17	7	10	64	44	+20	58
5	Karlsruher SC	34	15	10	9	68	48	+20	55
6	Hannover 96	34	13	13	8	59	44	+15	52
7	SC Paderborn 07	34	15	7	12	54	54	0	52
8	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	34	14	8	12	50	49	+1	50
9	Hertha BSC	34	13	9	12	69	59	+10	48
10	FC Schalke 04	34	12	7	15	53	60	-7	43
11	SV Elversberg	34	12	7	15	49	63	-14	43
12	1. FC Nürnberg	34	11	7	16	43	64	-21	40
13	1. FC Kaiserslautern	34	11	6	17	59	64	-5	39
14	1. FC Magdeburg	34	9	11	14	46	54	-8	38
15	Eintracht Braunschweig	34	11	5	18	37	53	-16	38
16	SV Wehen	34	8	8	18	36	50	-14	32
17	Hansa Rostock	34	9	4	21	30	57	-27	31
18	VfL Osnabrück	34	6	10	18	31	69	-38	28

The table is computed from match results; matches decided by forfeit count with the score declared by the federation. Points deducted or awarded separately are not reflected. Only regular-season matches count — play-offs and relegation matches are excluded.

Teams in this league

Every team in this season's fixture list. Unlike the standings table, teams that have not played yet also appear here.

Season simulation

The remaining fixtures were played out 10,000 times using the model's current probabilities. Percentages below are how often each team finished in that position.

Team	Title	Top 4	Bottom 3	Pts (avg)
1. FC Nürnberg	33.3%	70.4%	0.2%	59.5
Hertha BSC	10.2%	39.1%	1.2%	53.9
VfL Wolfsburg	9.6%	38.3%	1.3%	53.8
Arminia Bielefeld	8.1%	35.9%	1.6%	53.0
Dynamo Dresden	5.6%	29.1%	2.8%	51.8
Hannover 96	5.9%	29.3%	2.4%	51.8
VfL Bochum	4.9%	26.2%	2.7%	51.3
FC St. Pauli	4.2%	21.7%	3.8%	50.2
SV Darmstadt 98	4.3%	22.2%	3.8%	50.1
1. FC Kaiserslautern	3.3%	18.8%	4.8%	49.4
Karlsruher SC	3.3%	18.4%	5.4%	49.3
Holstein Kiel	2.9%	16.7%	5.8%	48.8
Energie Cottbus	2.5%	15.3%	6.1%	48.6
1. FC Magdeburg	1.3%	10.4%	10.4%	46.7
Eintracht Braunschweig	0.6%	6.2%	15.3%	44.4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth	0.1%	2.1%	34.1%	40.7
1. FC Heidenheim	0.0%	0.0%	98.2%	24.3
VfL Osnabrück	0.0%	0.0%	99.9%	17.9

Method: ratings are frozen as of the run date; ties break by points-GD-goals, country-specific rules not applied. Pairings below the publishing threshold use the model's prior rating. The table refreshes whenever the script is re-run.

Generated: 2026-08-23 · 3 · 10,000

The model's record in this league

The model's claim is not “I know every match” — it is “I know where I'm confident”. Measured in this league:

Match result
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	374	57%
≥ 60%	107	68%
≥ 70%	22	73%

Double chance
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 75%	818	79%
≥ 80%	214	86%
≥ 85%	60	88%

Goals markets
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	2199	60%
≥ 55%	1920	61%
≥ 60%	1254	63%

And if it had to answer every match?

Model: 49%
Always pick home: 44%
Picking at random: 33%
Reachable ceiling: 75%

Why that ceiling is not 100%: 25% of matches in this league end in a draw, and a draw is almost never the single most likely outcome on its own. So one “accuracy” figure cannot be read on its own — it is read next to these anchors.

Matches measured: 1149. The thresholds were not cherry-picked — all of them are shown. Incorrect predictions are included and none are hidden.

Full track record →