League · France

Ligue 2 2024-25 statistics

2024-25 season

Matches played: 306
Goals per match: 2.58
Home win: 49%
Draw: 24%
Away win: 28%
3+ goals: 48%
Both teams scored: 48%

Table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Lorient	34	22	5	7	68	31	+37	71
2	Paris FC	34	21	6	7	55	33	+22	69
3	Metz	34	18	11	5	64	34	+30	65
4	Dunkerque	34	17	5	12	47	40	+7	56
5	Guingamp	34	17	4	13	57	45	+12	55
6	Annecy	34	14	9	11	42	43	-1	51
7	Laval	34	14	8	12	44	38	+6	50
8	Bastia	34	11	15	8	43	37	+6	48
9	Grenoble	34	13	7	14	43	44	-1	46
10	Estac Troyes	34	13	5	16	36	34	+2	44
11	Amiens	34	13	4	17	38	50	-12	43
12	Ajaccio	34	12	6	16	30	42	-12	42
13	PAU	34	10	12	12	39	53	-14	42
14	Rodez	34	9	12	13	56	54	+2	39
15	RED Star FC 93	34	9	11	14	37	51	-14	38
16	Clermont Foot	34	7	12	15	30	46	-16	33
17	Martigues	34	9	5	20	29	56	-27	32
18	Caen	34	5	7	22	31	58	-27	22

The table is computed from match results; matches decided by forfeit count with the score declared by the federation. Points deducted or awarded separately are not reflected. Only regular-season matches count — play-offs and relegation matches are excluded.

Teams in this league

Every team in this season's fixture list. Unlike the standings table, teams that have not played yet also appear here.

Season simulation

The remaining fixtures were played out 10,000 times using the model's current probabilities. Percentages below are how often each team finished in that position.

Team	Title	Top 4	Bottom 3	Pts (avg)
Saint Etienne	69.5%	97.1%	0.0%	69.6
Annecy	8.0%	60.4%	0.0%	58.4
Montpellier	6.3%	54.0%	0.1%	57.4
Metz	6.0%	54.6%	0.0%	57.4
Rodez	5.0%	50.2%	0.1%	56.5
Reims	3.5%	41.5%	0.1%	55.0
Dunkerque	1.1%	21.1%	0.8%	51.0
RED Star FC 93	0.5%	14.2%	1.3%	49.2
Guingamp	0.0%	2.5%	9.3%	42.4
Clermont Foot	0.0%	1.3%	15.4%	40.4
Laval	0.0%	1.0%	16.5%	40.2
Nancy	0.0%	0.9%	20.0%	39.0
Grenoble	0.0%	0.5%	23.0%	38.5
PAU	0.0%	0.3%	33.5%	36.4
Boulogne	0.0%	0.2%	35.0%	35.9
Dijon	0.0%	0.2%	37.4%	35.5
Sochaux	0.0%	0.1%	45.4%	34.2
Nantes	0.0%	0.0%	62.3%	31.7

Method: ratings are frozen as of the run date; ties break by points-GD-goals, country-specific rules not applied. Pairings below the publishing threshold use the model's prior rating. The table refreshes whenever the script is re-run.

Generated: 2026-08-23 · 3 · 10,000

The model's record in this league

The model's claim is not “I know every match” — it is “I know where I'm confident”. Measured in this league:

Match result
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	396	59%
≥ 60%	123	71%
≥ 70%	19	79%

Double chance
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 75%	721	81%
≥ 80%	291	84%
≥ 85%	93	87%

Goals markets
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	1179	54%
≥ 55%	461	59%
≥ 60%	101	63%

And if it had to answer every match?

Model: 47%
Always pick home: 42%
Picking at random: 33%
Reachable ceiling: 72%

Why that ceiling is not 100%: 28% of matches in this league end in a draw, and a draw is almost never the single most likely outcome on its own. So one “accuracy” figure cannot be read on its own — it is read next to these anchors.

Matches measured: 1304. The thresholds were not cherry-picked — all of them are shown. Incorrect predictions are included and none are hidden.

Full track record →