League · France

Ligue 1 2025-26 statistics

2025-26 season

Matches played: 305
Goals per match: 2.83
Home win: 46%
Draw: 24%
Away win: 30%
3+ goals: 53%
Both teams scored: 51%

Table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	34	24	4	6	74	29	+45	76
2	Lens	34	22	4	8	66	35	+31	70
3	Lille	34	18	7	9	52	37	+15	61
4	Lyon	34	18	6	10	53	40	+13	60
5	Marseille	34	18	5	11	63	45	+18	59
6	Rennes	34	17	8	9	59	50	+9	59
7	Monaco	34	16	6	12	60	54	+6	54
8	Strasbourg	34	15	8	11	58	47	+11	53
9	Toulouse	34	12	9	13	47	46	+1	45
10	Lorient	34	11	12	11	48	51	-3	45
11	Paris FC	34	11	11	12	47	50	-3	44
12	Stade Brestois 29	34	10	9	15	43	55	-12	39
13	Angers	34	9	9	16	29	48	-19	36
14	Le Havre	34	7	14	13	32	44	-12	35
15	Auxerre	34	8	10	16	34	44	-10	34
16	Nice	34	7	11	16	37	60	-23	32
17	Nantes	34	5	9	20	29	52	-23	24
18	Metz	34	3	8	23	32	76	-44	17

The table is computed from match results; matches decided by forfeit count with the score declared by the federation. Points deducted or awarded separately are not reflected. Only regular-season matches count — play-offs and relegation matches are excluded.

Teams in this league

Every team in this season's fixture list. Unlike the standings table, teams that have not played yet also appear here.

Season simulation

The remaining fixtures were played out 10,000 times using the model's current probabilities. Percentages below are how often each team finished in that position.

Team	Title	Top 4	Bottom 3	Pts (avg)
Paris Saint Germain	73.0%	98.2%	0.0%	71.0
Lens	14.6%	79.0%	0.0%	61.5
Marseille	4.7%	56.8%	0.1%	56.8
Lyon	3.5%	48.4%	0.2%	55.5
Lille	1.9%	39.2%	0.4%	53.9
Monaco	1.1%	25.4%	1.3%	50.8
Rennes	0.7%	20.9%	1.7%	50.0
Strasbourg	0.2%	8.8%	5.3%	46.0
Paris FC	0.2%	9.0%	4.9%	46.0
Lorient	0.1%	5.7%	7.9%	44.1
Toulouse	0.0%	2.7%	14.6%	41.5
Le Mans	0.0%	2.5%	15.5%	41.2
Auxerre	0.0%	1.5%	22.1%	39.7
Stade Brestois 29	0.0%	1.0%	26.5%	38.6
Nice	0.0%	0.6%	35.8%	36.7
Le Havre	0.0%	0.5%	39.6%	36.0
Estac Troyes	0.0%	0.1%	51.5%	33.6
Angers	0.0%	0.0%	72.7%	30.4

Method: ratings are frozen as of the run date; ties break by points-GD-goals, country-specific rules not applied. Pairings below the publishing threshold use the model's prior rating. The table refreshes whenever the script is re-run.

Generated: 2026-08-23 · 3 · 10,000

The model's record in this league

The model's claim is not “I know every match” — it is “I know where I'm confident”. Measured in this league:

Match result
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	643	62%
≥ 60%	336	68%
≥ 70%	133	74%

Double chance
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 75%	1231	81%
≥ 80%	646	86%
≥ 85%	312	91%

Goals markets
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	1848	57%
≥ 55%	1192	61%
≥ 60%	569	64%

And if it had to answer every match?

Model: 53%
Always pick home: 43%
Picking at random: 33%
Reachable ceiling: 76%

Why that ceiling is not 100%: 24% of matches in this league end in a draw, and a draw is almost never the single most likely outcome on its own. So one “accuracy” figure cannot be read on its own — it is read next to these anchors.

Matches measured: 1213. The thresholds were not cherry-picked — all of them are shown. Incorrect predictions are included and none are hidden.

Full track record →