League · France

Ligue 1 2024-25 statistics

2024-25 season

Matches played: 306
Goals per match: 2.98
Home win: 47%
Draw: 20%
Away win: 33%
3+ goals: 56%
Both teams scored: 57%

Table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	34	26	6	2	92	35	+57	84
2	Marseille	34	20	5	9	74	47	+27	65
3	Monaco	34	18	7	9	63	41	+22	61
4	Nice	34	17	9	8	66	41	+25	60
5	Lille	34	17	9	8	52	36	+16	60
6	Lyon	34	17	6	11	65	46	+19	57
7	Strasbourg	34	16	9	9	56	44	+12	57
8	Lens	34	15	7	12	42	39	+3	52
9	Stade Brestois 29	34	15	5	14	52	59	-7	50
10	Toulouse	34	11	9	14	44	43	+1	42
11	Auxerre	34	11	9	14	48	51	-3	42
12	Rennes	34	13	2	19	51	50	+1	41
13	Nantes	34	8	12	14	39	52	-13	36
14	Angers	34	10	6	18	32	53	-21	36
15	Le Havre	34	10	4	20	40	71	-31	34
16	Reims	34	8	9	17	33	47	-14	33
17	Saint Etienne	34	8	6	20	39	77	-38	30
18	Montpellier	34	4	4	26	23	79	-56	16

The table is computed from match results; matches decided by forfeit count with the score declared by the federation. Points deducted or awarded separately are not reflected. Only regular-season matches count — play-offs and relegation matches are excluded.

Teams in this league

Every team in this season's fixture list. Unlike the standings table, teams that have not played yet also appear here.

Season simulation

The remaining fixtures were played out 10,000 times using the model's current probabilities. Percentages below are how often each team finished in that position.

Team	Title	Top 4	Bottom 3	Pts (avg)
Paris Saint Germain	73.0%	98.2%	0.0%	71.0
Lens	14.6%	79.0%	0.0%	61.5
Marseille	4.7%	56.8%	0.1%	56.8
Lyon	3.5%	48.4%	0.2%	55.5
Lille	1.9%	39.2%	0.4%	53.9
Monaco	1.1%	25.4%	1.3%	50.8
Rennes	0.7%	20.9%	1.7%	50.0
Strasbourg	0.2%	8.8%	5.3%	46.0
Paris FC	0.2%	9.0%	4.9%	46.0
Lorient	0.1%	5.7%	7.9%	44.1
Toulouse	0.0%	2.7%	14.6%	41.5
Le Mans	0.0%	2.5%	15.5%	41.2
Auxerre	0.0%	1.5%	22.1%	39.7
Stade Brestois 29	0.0%	1.0%	26.5%	38.6
Nice	0.0%	0.6%	35.8%	36.7
Le Havre	0.0%	0.5%	39.6%	36.0
Estac Troyes	0.0%	0.1%	51.5%	33.6
Angers	0.0%	0.0%	72.7%	30.4

Method: ratings are frozen as of the run date; ties break by points-GD-goals, country-specific rules not applied. Pairings below the publishing threshold use the model's prior rating. The table refreshes whenever the script is re-run.

Generated: 2026-08-23 · 3 · 10,000

The model's record in this league

The model's claim is not “I know every match” — it is “I know where I'm confident”. Measured in this league:

Match result
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	643	62%
≥ 60%	336	68%
≥ 70%	133	74%

Double chance
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 75%	1231	81%
≥ 80%	646	86%
≥ 85%	312	91%

Goals markets
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	1848	57%
≥ 55%	1192	61%
≥ 60%	569	64%

And if it had to answer every match?

Model: 53%
Always pick home: 43%
Picking at random: 33%
Reachable ceiling: 76%

Why that ceiling is not 100%: 24% of matches in this league end in a draw, and a draw is almost never the single most likely outcome on its own. So one “accuracy” figure cannot be read on its own — it is read next to these anchors.

Matches measured: 1213. The thresholds were not cherry-picked — all of them are shown. Incorrect predictions are included and none are hidden.

Full track record →