League · England

Premier League 2025-26 statistics

2025-26 season

Matches played: 380
Goals per match: 2.75
Home win: 43%
Draw: 27%
Away win: 30%
3+ goals: 55%
Both teams scored: 56%

Table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	38	26	7	5	71	27	+44	85
2	Manchester City	38	23	9	6	77	35	+42	78
3	Manchester United	38	20	11	7	69	50	+19	71
4	Aston Villa	38	19	8	11	56	49	+7	65
5	Liverpool	38	17	9	12	63	53	+10	60
6	Bournemouth	38	13	18	7	58	54	+4	57
7	Sunderland	38	14	12	12	42	48	-6	54
8	Brighton	38	14	11	13	52	46	+6	53
9	Brentford	38	14	11	13	55	52	+3	53
10	Chelsea	38	14	10	14	58	52	+6	52
11	Fulham	38	15	7	16	47	51	-4	52
12	Newcastle	38	14	7	17	53	55	-2	49
13	Everton	38	13	10	15	47	50	-3	49
14	Leeds	38	11	14	13	49	56	-7	47
15	Crystal Palace	38	11	12	15	41	51	-10	45
16	Nottingham Forest	38	11	11	16	48	51	-3	44
17	Tottenham	38	10	11	17	48	57	-9	41
18	West Ham	38	10	9	19	46	65	-19	39
19	Burnley	38	4	10	24	38	75	-37	22
20	Wolves	38	3	11	24	27	68	-41	20

The table is computed from match results; matches decided by forfeit count with the score declared by the federation. Points deducted or awarded separately are not reflected. Only regular-season matches count — play-offs and relegation matches are excluded.

Teams in this league

Every team in this season's fixture list. Unlike the standings table, teams that have not played yet also appear here.

Season simulation

The remaining fixtures were played out 10,000 times using the model's current probabilities. Percentages below are how often each team finished in that position.

Team	Title	Top 4	Bottom 3	Pts (avg)
Arsenal	61.6%	98.4%	0.0%	78.3
Manchester City	33.8%	95.4%	0.0%	74.6
Liverpool	1.5%	39.1%	0.4%	59.7
Hull City	0.7%	29.1%	0.7%	57.8
Manchester United	0.6%	22.8%	1.4%	56.3
Brentford	0.4%	21.1%	1.6%	55.7
Bournemouth	0.3%	17.1%	2.2%	54.7
Aston Villa	0.3%	17.4%	2.4%	54.6
Brighton	0.2%	12.8%	3.8%	53.1
Newcastle	0.1%	10.9%	4.6%	52.4
Chelsea	0.2%	10.2%	4.7%	52.0
Leeds	0.1%	8.2%	5.1%	51.5
Everton	0.1%	6.5%	6.4%	50.6
Nottingham Forest	0.1%	5.8%	8.3%	49.6
Fulham	0.0%	3.2%	13.0%	47.6
Sunderland	0.0%	0.7%	32.1%	42.6
Coventry	0.0%	0.5%	39.0%	41.3
Crystal Palace	0.0%	0.4%	40.5%	40.9
Tottenham	0.0%	0.3%	47.7%	39.7
Ipswich	0.0%	0.0%	86.0%	32.0

Method: ratings are frozen as of the run date; ties break by points-GD-goals, country-specific rules not applied. Pairings below the publishing threshold use the model's prior rating. The table refreshes whenever the script is re-run.

Generated: 2026-08-23 · 3 · 10,000

The model's record in this league

The model's claim is not “I know every match” — it is “I know where I'm confident”. Measured in this league:

Match result
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	820	64%
≥ 60%	456	70%
≥ 70%	217	81%

Double chance
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 75%	1609	82%
≥ 80%	891	86%
≥ 85%	450	90%

Goals markets
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	2447	59%
≥ 55%	1772	61%
≥ 60%	972	65%

And if it had to answer every match?

Model: 55%
Always pick home: 44%
Picking at random: 33%
Reachable ceiling: 76%

Why that ceiling is not 100%: 24% of matches in this league end in a draw, and a draw is almost never the single most likely outcome on its own. So one “accuracy” figure cannot be read on its own — it is read next to these anchors.

Matches measured: 1440. The thresholds were not cherry-picked — all of them are shown. Incorrect predictions are included and none are hidden.

Full track record →