League · England

Premier League 2023-24 statistics

2023-24 season

Matches played: 380
Goals per match: 3.28
Home win: 46%
Draw: 22%
Away win: 32%
3+ goals: 65%
Both teams scored: 62%

Table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	38	28	7	3	96	34	+62	91
2	Arsenal	38	28	5	5	91	29	+62	89
3	Liverpool	38	24	10	4	86	41	+45	82
4	Aston Villa	38	20	8	10	76	61	+15	68
5	Tottenham	38	20	6	12	74	61	+13	66
6	Chelsea	38	18	9	11	77	63	+14	63
7	Newcastle	38	18	6	14	85	62	+23	60
8	Manchester United	38	18	6	14	57	58	-1	60
9	West Ham	38	14	10	14	60	74	-14	52
10	Crystal Palace	38	13	10	15	57	58	-1	49
11	Brighton	38	12	12	14	55	62	-7	48
12	Everton	38	13	9	16	40	51	-11	48
13	Bournemouth	38	13	9	16	54	67	-13	48
14	Fulham	38	13	8	17	55	61	-6	47
15	Wolves	38	13	7	18	50	65	-15	46
16	Brentford	38	10	9	19	56	65	-9	39
17	Nottingham Forest	38	9	9	20	49	67	-18	36
18	Luton	38	6	8	24	52	85	-33	26
19	Burnley	38	5	9	24	41	78	-37	24
20	Sheffield Utd	38	3	7	28	35	104	-69	16

The table is computed from match results; matches decided by forfeit count with the score declared by the federation. Points deducted or awarded separately are not reflected. Only regular-season matches count — play-offs and relegation matches are excluded.

Teams in this league

Every team in this season's fixture list. Unlike the standings table, teams that have not played yet also appear here.

Season simulation

The remaining fixtures were played out 10,000 times using the model's current probabilities. Percentages below are how often each team finished in that position.

Team	Title	Top 4	Bottom 3	Pts (avg)
Arsenal	61.6%	98.4%	0.0%	78.3
Manchester City	33.8%	95.4%	0.0%	74.6
Liverpool	1.5%	39.1%	0.4%	59.7
Hull City	0.7%	29.1%	0.7%	57.8
Manchester United	0.6%	22.8%	1.4%	56.3
Brentford	0.4%	21.1%	1.6%	55.7
Bournemouth	0.3%	17.1%	2.2%	54.7
Aston Villa	0.3%	17.4%	2.4%	54.6
Brighton	0.2%	12.8%	3.8%	53.1
Newcastle	0.1%	10.9%	4.6%	52.4
Chelsea	0.2%	10.2%	4.7%	52.0
Leeds	0.1%	8.2%	5.1%	51.5
Everton	0.1%	6.5%	6.4%	50.6
Nottingham Forest	0.1%	5.8%	8.3%	49.6
Fulham	0.0%	3.2%	13.0%	47.6
Sunderland	0.0%	0.7%	32.1%	42.6
Coventry	0.0%	0.5%	39.0%	41.3
Crystal Palace	0.0%	0.4%	40.5%	40.9
Tottenham	0.0%	0.3%	47.7%	39.7
Ipswich	0.0%	0.0%	86.0%	32.0

Method: ratings are frozen as of the run date; ties break by points-GD-goals, country-specific rules not applied. Pairings below the publishing threshold use the model's prior rating. The table refreshes whenever the script is re-run.

Generated: 2026-08-23 · 3 · 10,000

The model's record in this league

The model's claim is not “I know every match” — it is “I know where I'm confident”. Measured in this league:

Match result
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	820	64%
≥ 60%	456	70%
≥ 70%	217	81%

Double chance
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 75%	1609	82%
≥ 80%	891	86%
≥ 85%	450	90%

Goals markets
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	2447	59%
≥ 55%	1772	61%
≥ 60%	972	65%

And if it had to answer every match?

Model: 55%
Always pick home: 44%
Picking at random: 33%
Reachable ceiling: 76%

Why that ceiling is not 100%: 24% of matches in this league end in a draw, and a draw is almost never the single most likely outcome on its own. So one “accuracy” figure cannot be read on its own — it is read next to these anchors.

Matches measured: 1440. The thresholds were not cherry-picked — all of them are shown. Incorrect predictions are included and none are hidden.

Full track record →