League · Spain

La Liga 2025-26 statistics

2025-26 season

Matches played: 380
Goals per match: 2.69
Home win: 49%
Draw: 24%
Away win: 27%
3+ goals: 50%
Both teams scored: 57%

Table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	38	31	1	6	95	36	+59	94
2	Real Madrid	38	27	5	6	77	35	+42	86
3	Villarreal	38	22	6	10	72	46	+26	72
4	Atletico Madrid	38	21	6	11	62	44	+18	69
5	Real Betis	38	15	15	8	59	48	+11	60
6	Celta Vigo	38	14	12	12	53	48	+5	54
7	Getafe	38	15	6	17	32	38	-6	51
8	Rayo Vallecano	38	12	14	12	41	44	-3	50
9	Valencia	38	13	10	15	46	55	-9	49
10	Real Sociedad	38	11	13	14	59	61	-2	46
11	Espanyol	38	12	10	16	43	55	-12	46
12	Athletic Club	38	13	6	19	43	58	-15	45
13	Elche	38	10	13	15	49	57	-8	43
14	Alaves	38	11	10	17	44	56	-12	43
15	Sevilla	38	12	7	19	46	60	-14	43
16	Osasuna	38	11	9	18	44	50	-6	42
17	Mallorca	38	11	9	18	47	57	-10	42
18	Levante	38	11	9	18	47	61	-14	42
19	Girona	38	9	14	15	39	55	-16	41
20	Oviedo	38	6	11	21	26	60	-34	29

The table is computed from match results; matches decided by forfeit count with the score declared by the federation. Points deducted or awarded separately are not reflected. Only regular-season matches count — play-offs and relegation matches are excluded.

Teams in this league

Every team in this season's fixture list. Unlike the standings table, teams that have not played yet also appear here.

Season simulation

The remaining fixtures were played out 10,000 times using the model's current probabilities. Percentages below are how often each team finished in that position.

Team	Title	Top 4	Bottom 3	Pts (avg)
Barcelona	70.3%	99.7%	0.0%	82.3
Real Madrid	26.1%	97.7%	0.0%	76.5
Atletico Madrid	1.8%	63.2%	0.1%	64.1
Villarreal	1.4%	62.0%	0.1%	63.8
Real Betis	0.3%	30.7%	0.7%	58.2
Celta Vigo	0.1%	14.2%	2.9%	53.9
Racing Santander	0.0%	5.1%	9.7%	49.4
Sevilla	0.0%	4.1%	10.3%	49.0
Alaves	0.0%	3.9%	10.9%	48.6
Real Sociedad	0.0%	3.3%	14.4%	47.9
Valencia	0.0%	2.7%	15.5%	47.2
Deportivo La Coruna	0.0%	2.6%	15.9%	47.1
Elche	0.0%	2.4%	17.5%	46.6
Osasuna	0.0%	2.4%	18.0%	46.4
Rayo Vallecano	0.0%	1.9%	18.4%	46.1
Espanyol	0.0%	1.7%	21.5%	45.3
Malaga	0.0%	0.9%	30.0%	43.5
Athletic Club	0.0%	0.8%	33.9%	42.9
Getafe	0.0%	0.4%	37.2%	42.0
Levante	0.0%	0.4%	42.9%	41.3

Method: ratings are frozen as of the run date; ties break by points-GD-goals, country-specific rules not applied. Pairings below the publishing threshold use the model's prior rating. The table refreshes whenever the script is re-run.

Generated: 2026-08-23 · 3 · 10,000

The model's record in this league

The model's claim is not “I know every match” — it is “I know where I'm confident”. Measured in this league:

Match result
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	683	66%
≥ 60%	336	76%
≥ 70%	178	86%

Double chance
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 75%	1313	84%
≥ 80%	772	87%
≥ 85%	378	92%

Goals markets
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	1391	60%
≥ 55%	764	66%
≥ 60%	373	71%

And if it had to answer every match?

Model: 55%
Always pick home: 46%
Picking at random: 33%
Reachable ceiling: 75%

Why that ceiling is not 100%: 25% of matches in this league end in a draw, and a draw is almost never the single most likely outcome on its own. So one “accuracy” figure cannot be read on its own — it is read next to these anchors.

Matches measured: 1456. The thresholds were not cherry-picked — all of them are shown. Incorrect predictions are included and none are hidden.

Full track record →