League · Spain

La Liga 2023-24 statistics

2023-24 season

Matches played: 380
Goals per match: 2.64
Home win: 44%
Draw: 28%
Away win: 28%
3+ goals: 46%
Both teams scored: 49%

Table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Real Madrid	38	29	8	1	87	26	+61	95
2	Barcelona	38	26	7	5	79	44	+35	85
3	Girona	38	25	6	7	85	46	+39	81
4	Atletico Madrid	38	24	4	10	70	43	+27	76
5	Athletic Club	38	19	11	8	61	37	+24	68
6	Real Sociedad	38	16	12	10	51	39	+12	60
7	Real Betis	38	14	15	9	48	45	+3	57
8	Villarreal	38	14	11	13	65	65	0	53
9	Valencia	38	13	10	15	40	45	-5	49
10	Alaves	38	12	10	16	36	46	-10	46
11	Osasuna	38	12	9	17	45	56	-11	45
12	Getafe	38	10	13	15	42	54	-12	43
13	Sevilla	38	10	11	17	48	54	-6	41
14	Celta Vigo	38	10	11	17	46	57	-11	41
15	Mallorca	38	8	16	14	33	44	-11	40
16	Las Palmas	38	10	10	18	33	47	-14	40
17	Rayo Vallecano	38	8	14	16	29	48	-19	38
18	Cadiz	38	6	15	17	26	55	-29	33
19	Almeria	38	3	12	23	43	75	-32	21
20	Granada CF	38	4	9	25	38	79	-41	21

The table is computed from match results; matches decided by forfeit count with the score declared by the federation. Points deducted or awarded separately are not reflected. Only regular-season matches count — play-offs and relegation matches are excluded.

Teams in this league

Every team in this season's fixture list. Unlike the standings table, teams that have not played yet also appear here.

Season simulation

The remaining fixtures were played out 10,000 times using the model's current probabilities. Percentages below are how often each team finished in that position.

Team	Title	Top 4	Bottom 3	Pts (avg)
Barcelona	70.3%	99.7%	0.0%	82.3
Real Madrid	26.1%	97.7%	0.0%	76.5
Atletico Madrid	1.8%	63.2%	0.1%	64.1
Villarreal	1.4%	62.0%	0.1%	63.8
Real Betis	0.3%	30.7%	0.7%	58.2
Celta Vigo	0.1%	14.2%	2.9%	53.9
Racing Santander	0.0%	5.1%	9.7%	49.4
Sevilla	0.0%	4.1%	10.3%	49.0
Alaves	0.0%	3.9%	10.9%	48.6
Real Sociedad	0.0%	3.3%	14.4%	47.9
Valencia	0.0%	2.7%	15.5%	47.2
Deportivo La Coruna	0.0%	2.6%	15.9%	47.1
Elche	0.0%	2.4%	17.5%	46.6
Osasuna	0.0%	2.4%	18.0%	46.4
Rayo Vallecano	0.0%	1.9%	18.4%	46.1
Espanyol	0.0%	1.7%	21.5%	45.3
Malaga	0.0%	0.9%	30.0%	43.5
Athletic Club	0.0%	0.8%	33.9%	42.9
Getafe	0.0%	0.4%	37.2%	42.0
Levante	0.0%	0.4%	42.9%	41.3

Method: ratings are frozen as of the run date; ties break by points-GD-goals, country-specific rules not applied. Pairings below the publishing threshold use the model's prior rating. The table refreshes whenever the script is re-run.

Generated: 2026-08-23 · 3 · 10,000

The model's record in this league

The model's claim is not “I know every match” — it is “I know where I'm confident”. Measured in this league:

Match result
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	684	66%
≥ 60%	337	77%
≥ 70%	179	86%

Double chance
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 75%	1315	84%
≥ 80%	774	87%
≥ 85%	380	92%

Goals markets
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	1393	60%
≥ 55%	766	66%
≥ 60%	374	71%

And if it had to answer every match?

Model: 55%
Always pick home: 46%
Picking at random: 33%
Reachable ceiling: 75%

Why that ceiling is not 100%: 25% of matches in this league end in a draw, and a draw is almost never the single most likely outcome on its own. So one “accuracy” figure cannot be read on its own — it is read next to these anchors.

Matches measured: 1457. The thresholds were not cherry-picked — all of them are shown. Incorrect predictions are included and none are hidden.

Full track record →