League · Italy

Serie A 2025-26 statistics

2025-26 season

Matches played: 380
Goals per match: 2.43
Home win: 39%
Draw: 26%
Away win: 35%
3+ goals: 46%
Both teams scored: 45%

Table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Inter	38	27	6	5	89	35	+54	87
2	Napoli	38	23	7	8	58	36	+22	76
3	AS Roma	38	23	4	11	59	31	+28	73
4	Como	38	20	11	7	65	29	+36	71
5	AC Milan	38	20	10	8	53	35	+18	70
6	Juventus	38	19	12	7	61	34	+27	69
7	Atalanta	38	15	14	9	51	36	+15	59
8	Bologna	38	16	8	14	49	46	+3	56
9	Lazio	38	14	12	12	41	40	+1	54
10	Udinese	38	14	8	16	45	48	-3	50
11	Sassuolo	38	14	7	17	46	50	-4	49
12	Parma	38	11	12	15	28	46	-18	45
13	Torino	38	12	9	17	44	63	-19	45
14	Cagliari	38	11	10	17	40	53	-13	43
15	Fiorentina	38	9	15	14	41	50	-9	42
16	Genoa	38	10	11	17	41	51	-10	41
17	Lecce	38	10	8	20	28	50	-22	38
18	Cremonese	38	8	10	20	32	57	-25	34
19	Hellas Verona	38	3	12	23	25	61	-36	21
20	Pisa	38	2	12	24	26	71	-45	18

The table is computed from match results; matches decided by forfeit count with the score declared by the federation. Points deducted or awarded separately are not reflected. Only regular-season matches count — play-offs and relegation matches are excluded.

Teams in this league

Every team in this season's fixture list. Unlike the standings table, teams that have not played yet also appear here.

Season simulation

The remaining fixtures were played out 10,000 times using the model's current probabilities. Percentages below are how often each team finished in that position.

Team	Title	Top 4	Bottom 3	Pts (avg)
Inter	67.6%	97.2%	0.0%	81.0
AS Roma	10.8%	66.6%	0.0%	70.4
Como	7.1%	61.4%	0.0%	69.1
Napoli	6.5%	58.5%	0.0%	68.7
Juventus	4.5%	50.2%	0.0%	67.1
Atalanta	2.5%	36.7%	0.0%	64.8
AC Milan	0.8%	18.7%	0.0%	60.3
Bologna	0.1%	4.0%	0.8%	53.5
Lazio	0.0%	2.6%	1.3%	52.1
Fiorentina	0.0%	1.9%	1.8%	50.9
Udinese	0.0%	1.1%	2.3%	49.7
Sassuolo	0.0%	0.5%	5.6%	47.0
Cagliari	0.0%	0.4%	8.4%	45.1
Genoa	0.0%	0.1%	12.8%	43.2
Torino	0.0%	0.1%	15.1%	42.5
Parma	0.0%	0.0%	33.1%	37.8
Venezia	0.0%	0.0%	38.2%	37.1
Lecce	0.0%	0.0%	43.9%	36.0
Frosinone	0.0%	0.0%	49.9%	35.2
Monza	0.0%	0.0%	86.8%	27.8

Method: ratings are frozen as of the run date; ties break by points-GD-goals, country-specific rules not applied. Pairings below the publishing threshold use the model's prior rating. The table refreshes whenever the script is re-run.

Generated: 2026-08-23 · 3 · 10,000

The model's record in this league

The model's claim is not “I know every match” — it is “I know where I'm confident”. Measured in this league:

Match result
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	747	63%
≥ 60%	393	71%
≥ 70%	141	77%

Double chance
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 75%	1345	84%
≥ 80%	776	87%
≥ 85%	386	91%

Goals markets
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	1358	54%
≥ 55%	565	59%
≥ 60%	160	59%

And if it had to answer every match?

Model: 54%
Always pick home: 41%
Picking at random: 33%
Reachable ceiling: 73%

Why that ceiling is not 100%: 27% of matches in this league end in a draw, and a draw is almost never the single most likely outcome on its own. So one “accuracy” figure cannot be read on its own — it is read next to these anchors.

Matches measured: 1440. The thresholds were not cherry-picked — all of them are shown. Incorrect predictions are included and none are hidden.

Full track record →