League · Italy

Serie A 2024-25 statistics

2024-25 season

Matches played: 380
Goals per match: 2.56
Home win: 40%
Draw: 28%
Away win: 32%
3+ goals: 48%
Both teams scored: 52%

Table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Napoli	38	24	10	4	59	27	+32	82
2	Inter	38	24	9	5	79	35	+44	81
3	Atalanta	38	22	8	8	78	37	+41	74
4	Juventus	38	18	16	4	58	35	+23	70
5	AS Roma	38	20	9	9	56	35	+21	69
6	Fiorentina	38	19	8	11	60	41	+19	65
7	Lazio	38	18	11	9	61	49	+12	65
8	AC Milan	38	18	9	11	61	43	+18	63
9	Bologna	38	16	14	8	57	47	+10	62
10	Como	38	13	10	15	49	52	-3	49
11	Torino	38	10	14	14	39	45	-6	44
12	Udinese	38	12	8	18	41	56	-15	44
13	Genoa	38	10	13	15	37	49	-12	43
14	Hellas Verona	38	10	7	21	34	66	-32	37
15	Parma	38	7	15	16	44	58	-14	36
16	Cagliari	38	9	9	20	40	56	-16	36
17	Lecce	38	8	10	20	27	58	-31	34
18	Empoli	38	6	13	19	33	59	-26	31
19	Venezia	38	5	14	19	32	56	-24	29
20	Monza	38	3	9	26	28	69	-41	18

The table is computed from match results; matches decided by forfeit count with the score declared by the federation. Points deducted or awarded separately are not reflected. Only regular-season matches count — play-offs and relegation matches are excluded.

Teams in this league

Every team in this season's fixture list. Unlike the standings table, teams that have not played yet also appear here.

Season simulation

The remaining fixtures were played out 10,000 times using the model's current probabilities. Percentages below are how often each team finished in that position.

Team	Title	Top 4	Bottom 3	Pts (avg)
Inter	67.6%	97.2%	0.0%	81.0
AS Roma	10.8%	66.6%	0.0%	70.4
Como	7.1%	61.4%	0.0%	69.1
Napoli	6.5%	58.5%	0.0%	68.7
Juventus	4.5%	50.2%	0.0%	67.1
Atalanta	2.5%	36.7%	0.0%	64.8
AC Milan	0.8%	18.7%	0.0%	60.3
Bologna	0.1%	4.0%	0.8%	53.5
Lazio	0.0%	2.6%	1.3%	52.1
Fiorentina	0.0%	1.9%	1.8%	50.9
Udinese	0.0%	1.1%	2.3%	49.7
Sassuolo	0.0%	0.5%	5.6%	47.0
Cagliari	0.0%	0.4%	8.4%	45.1
Genoa	0.0%	0.1%	12.8%	43.2
Torino	0.0%	0.1%	15.1%	42.5
Parma	0.0%	0.0%	33.1%	37.8
Venezia	0.0%	0.0%	38.2%	37.1
Lecce	0.0%	0.0%	43.9%	36.0
Frosinone	0.0%	0.0%	49.9%	35.2
Monza	0.0%	0.0%	86.8%	27.8

Method: ratings are frozen as of the run date; ties break by points-GD-goals, country-specific rules not applied. Pairings below the publishing threshold use the model's prior rating. The table refreshes whenever the script is re-run.

Generated: 2026-08-23 · 3 · 10,000

The model's record in this league

The model's claim is not “I know every match” — it is “I know where I'm confident”. Measured in this league:

Match result
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	747	63%
≥ 60%	393	71%
≥ 70%	141	77%

Double chance
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 75%	1345	84%
≥ 80%	776	87%
≥ 85%	386	91%

Goals markets
Model at least	Predictions	Realised
≥ 50%	1358	54%
≥ 55%	565	59%
≥ 60%	160	59%

And if it had to answer every match?

Model: 54%
Always pick home: 41%
Picking at random: 33%
Reachable ceiling: 73%

Why that ceiling is not 100%: 27% of matches in this league end in a draw, and a draw is almost never the single most likely outcome on its own. So one “accuracy” figure cannot be read on its own — it is read next to these anchors.

Matches measured: 1440. The thresholds were not cherry-picked — all of them are shown. Incorrect predictions are included and none are hidden.

Full track record →