Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 5

Eyüpspor–Rizespor

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'RizesporAli Sowe (assist: Iustin Doicaru)
43'RizesporV. Mihaila · red card
90+2'RizesporEmrecan Bulut (assist: Yahia Fofana)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eyüpspor		Rizespor
24	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	4
14	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	2
0	Offsides	2
49%	Possession	51%
330	Passes	364
274	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eyüpspor 1.23 · Rizespor 1.35. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Eyüpspor 24 · Rizespor 9; on target 4 and 4.

Announced lineup

Eyüpspor

Formation: 4-1-4-1 · Manager: Ozhan Pulat

Starting XI

Horațiu Moldovangoalkeeper
S. Giordanodefender
Zak Julesdefender
Jawad El Yamiqdefender
Talha Ülvandefender
Chandrel Massangamidfielder
Konrad Michalakmidfielder
Charles-Andre Raux Yaomidfielder
D. Costamidfielder
Bilal Boutobbamidfielder
A. Abdullahiforward

Substitutes

Arda Yavuz

Unavailable players

Eyüpspor

A. Sabiriout · injury
I. Taskinout · injury
S. Giordanodoubtful · Health problems

Rizespor

K. Alikulovout · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Oguzhan Aksu, Türkiye→

4.67

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.5%: “Rizespor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.01 for Eyüpspor, 1.62 for Rizespor.
The highest double chance value is 78.0% (X2 — draw or Rizespor win).
These values were computed from 1,378 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eyüpspor to win22.0%

Draw26.5%

Rizespor to win51.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,541 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Seyfettin Anıl Yaşar

Rizespor

Formation: 4-1-4-1 · Manager: Recep Ucar

Starting XI

Yahia Fofanagoalkeeper
Mithat Paladefender
Modibo Sagnandefender
Attila Mocsidefender
Taha Şahindefender
Taylan Antalyalımidfielder
V. Mihailamidfielder
Qazim Lacimidfielder
Ibrahim Olawoyinmidfielder
Iustin Doicarumidfielder
Ali Soweforward

Substitutes

Adedire Mebude
Ahmed Kutucu
Dal Varešanović
Emrecan Bulut
M. Diakite
Siaka Bakayoko
Tayyip Talha Sanuç
Umut Erdem
Zafer Görgen
Zakaria Ariss

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 13:56.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Eyüpspor win or draw48.5%

12 — any result other than a draw73.5%

X2 — draw or Rizespor win78.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Eyüpspor lead at half-time29.5%

Level at half-time45.4%

Rizespor lead at half-time25.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Eyüpspor ahead or level74.9%

12 — not level at half-time54.6%

X2 — level or Rizespor ahead70.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1377 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eyüpspor: at least 11Actual: 12
Rizespor: at least 13Actual: 9

Corners

Eyüpspor: at least 3Actual: 7
Rizespor: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (54.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eyüpspor score1.23

Attack: Eyüpspor score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Rizespor's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rizespor score1.35

Attack: Rizespor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eyüpspor's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%0–110.9%1–210.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1378 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 74 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.