Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 5

Galatasaray–Kocaelispor

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

71'GalatasarayAbdülkerim Bardakcı (assist: Aleksey Batrakov)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Galatasaray		Kocaelispor
28	Shots	11
8	Shots on target	0
19	Shots inside the box	9
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
16	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
61%	Possession	39%
469	Passes	314
416	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Galatasaray 2.03 · Kocaelispor 0.66. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Galatasaray 28 · Kocaelispor 11; on target 8 and 0.
Galatasaray kept the ball more (61%).

Announced lineup

Galatasaray

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Okan Buruk

Starting XI

Uğurcan Çakırgoalkeeper
Eren Elmalıdefender
Abdülkerim Bardakcıdefender
Davinson Sánchezdefender
Roland Sallaidefender
Gabriel Saramidfielder
Lucas Torreiramidfielder
R. Leaomidfielder
Yunus Akgünmidfielder
Barış Alper Yılmazmidfielder
Deniz Gülforward

Substitutes

Aleksey Batrakov

Unavailable players

Galatasaray

G. Guvencout · Muscle Injury
M. Leminaout · Muscle Injury
V. Osimhenout · injury
W. Singoout · Thigh Injury

Kocaelispor

A. Jovanovicout · Knee Injury
B. Petkovicout · Hamstring Injury
R. Rivasout · not in squad

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Atilla Karaoglan, Türkiye→

6.31

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 75.7%: “Galatasaray to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.41 for Galatasaray, 0.72 for Kocaelispor.
The highest double chance value is 92.1% (1X — Galatasaray win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,383 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Galatasaray to win75.7%

Draw16.4%

Kocaelispor to win7.9%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

El Chadaille Bitshiabu

Kocaelispor

Formation: 4-3-3 · Manager: Selcuk Inan

Starting XI

Serhat Öztaşdelengoalkeeper
Massadio Haïdaradefender
Matej Maglicadefender
Tanguy Zoukroudefender
Anfernee Jamal Dijksteeldefender
Berkan Kutlumidfielder
Showmidfielder
Mahamadou Susohomidfielder
Dan Agyeiforward
Florian Ayéforward
Gonçalo Sousaforward

Substitutes

Arda Ozyar
Ege Bilim
Emir Ortakaya
Makana Baku
Metehan Altunbaş
Muharrem Cinan
Onur Öztonga
Onurcan Piri
T. Bingol
Uğur Kaan Yıldız

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 17:14.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Galatasaray win or draw92.1%

12 — any result other than a draw83.6%

X2 — draw or Kocaelispor win24.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (16.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Galatasaray lead at half-time52.1%

Level at half-time39.4%

Kocaelispor lead at half-time8.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Galatasaray ahead or level91.5%

12 — not level at half-time60.6%

X2 — level or Kocaelispor ahead47.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1382 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Galatasaray: at least 12Actual: 12
Kocaelispor: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Galatasaray: at least 5Actual: 16
Kocaelispor: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals61.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Galatasaray score2.03

Attack: Galatasaray score 61% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Kocaelispor concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 2.03 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Kocaelispor score0.66

Attack: Kocaelispor score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Galatasaray concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.66 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.1%3–010.6%2–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1383 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 38 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.