Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 4

Kocaelispor–Samsunspor

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 September 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'KocaelisporFlorian Ayé

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kocaelispor		Samsunspor
9	Shots	20
4	Shots on target	4
4	Shots inside the box	14
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	4
0	Offsides	0
44%	Possession	56%
425	Passes	550
342	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kocaelispor 1.18 · Samsunspor 1.09. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Kocaelispor 9 · Samsunspor 20; on target 4 and 4.
Samsunspor kept the ball more (56%).

Announced lineup

Kocaelispor

Formation: 4-1-4-1 · Manager: S. İnan

Starting XI

Serhat Öztaşdelengoalkeeper
Massadio Haïdaradefender
Matej Maglicadefender
Tanguy Zoukroudefender
Anfernee Jamal Dijksteeldefender
Showmidfielder
Gonçalo Sousamidfielder
Berkan Kutlumidfielder
Uğur Kaan Yıldızmidfielder
Dan Agyeimidfielder
Florian Ayéforward

Substitutes

Emir Ortakaya

Unavailable players

Kocaelispor

A. Jovanovicout · Knee Injury
B. Petkovicout · Hamstring Injury
R. Rivasout · not in squad
T. Gulliksenout · not in squad
T. Bingoldoubtful · not in squad

Samsunspor

A. Sousaout · not in squad
E. Tavsanout · not in squad
E. Wattout · not in squad
F. Kayaout · injury
J. Assoumouout · not in squad
Mariusout · not in squad
Mariusout · not in squad
T. Coulibalyout · not in squad

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Resat Onur Coskunses, Türkiye→

5.00

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.7%: “Kocaelispor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Kocaelispor, 1.05 for Samsunspor.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (1X — Kocaelispor win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,373 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kocaelispor to win42.7%

Draw29.4%

Samsunspor to win27.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,777 of 3,996 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Samsunspor

Formation: 4-4-2 · Manager: Thorsten Fink

Starting XI

Okan Kocukgoalkeeper
Logi Tomassondefender
Gabriele Guarinodefender
Y. E. Ciftdefender
Josafat Mendesdefender
Emre Kılınçmidfielder
Samed Onurmidfielder
Celil Yükselmidfielder
Yalçın Kayanmidfielder
Antoine Sekongoforward
Saikuba Jarjuforward

Substitutes

Bilal Bayazit
Efe Yiğit Üstün
Enes Albak
Haluk Mustafa Tan
I. Drapinski
Strahinja Eraković

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Sunday, 6 September 2026 at 19:51.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Kocaelispor win or draw72.1%

12 — any result other than a draw70.6%

X2 — draw or Samsunspor win57.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.4%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Kocaelispor lead at half-time25.6%

Level at half-time46.8%

Samsunspor lead at half-time27.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Kocaelispor ahead or level72.4%

12 — not level at half-time53.2%

X2 — level or Samsunspor ahead74.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1372 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kocaelispor: at least 12Actual: 13
Samsunspor: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

Kocaelispor: at least 4Actual: 4
Samsunspor: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (54.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kocaelispor score1.18

Attack: Kocaelispor score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Samsunspor's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Samsunspor score1.09

Attack: Samsunspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kocaelispor concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–011.5%2–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1373 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 37 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.