Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 4

Rizespor–Alanyaspor

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 7 September 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Rize

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 21%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

70'AlanyasporZakaria Ariss (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rizespor		Alanyaspor
21	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
8	Corners	7
1	Offsides	2
64%	Possession	36%
500	Passes	278
429	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rizespor 1.55 · Alanyaspor 1.04. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Rizespor 21 · Alanyaspor 9; on target 5 and 2.
Rizespor kept the ball more (64%).

Announced lineup

Rizespor

Formation: 4-1-4-1 · Manager: R. Uçar

Starting XI

Yahia Fofanagoalkeeper
Zakaria Arissdefender
Modibo Sagnandefender
Attila Mocsidefender
Mithat Paladefender
Taylan Antalyalımidfielder
Emrecan Bulutmidfielder
Ibrahim Olawoyinmidfielder
Qazim Lacimidfielder
Ahmed Kutucumidfielder
Ali Soweforward

Substitutes

Adedire Mebude
Dal Varešanović

Unavailable players

Rizespor

K. Alikulovout · Knee Injury

Alanyaspor

Maestroout · not in squad

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Abdullah Bugra Taskinsoy, Türkiye→

2.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.1%: “Rizespor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for Rizespor, 0.96 for Alanyaspor.
The highest double chance value is 78.8% (1X — Rizespor win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,375 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rizespor to win52.1%

Draw26.7%

Alanyaspor to win21.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Alanyaspor

Formation: 3-4-3 · Manager: João Pereira

Starting XI

Paulo Victorgoalkeeper
Fatih Aksoydefender
Fidan Alitidefender
Nuno Limadefender
Ruan Pereira Duartemidfielder
Baran Ali Gezekmidfielder
Gaius Makoutamidfielder
Florent Hadergjonajmidfielder
Paolo Fernandesforward
Arda Usluoğluforward
Ianis Hagiforward

Substitutes

Bedirhan Özyurt
Enes Keskin
Hwang Ui-Jo
Ibrahim Kaya
Iván Cédric
İzzet Çelik
Mert Furkan Bayram
Meschak Elia
Omar Ben Ali
Yusuf Özdemir

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Monday, 7 September 2026 at 17:14.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Rizespor win or draw78.8%

12 — any result other than a draw73.3%

X2 — draw or Alanyaspor win47.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Rizespor lead at half-time28.8%

Level at half-time44.5%

Alanyaspor lead at half-time26.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Rizespor ahead or level73.2%

12 — not level at half-time55.5%

X2 — level or Alanyaspor ahead71.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1374 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rizespor: at least 13Actual: 8
Alanyaspor: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Rizespor: at least 4Actual: 8
Alanyaspor: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (54.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rizespor score1.55

Attack: Rizespor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Alanyaspor's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Alanyaspor score1.04

Attack: Alanyaspor score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Rizespor's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–011.6%2–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1375 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 111 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.