Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 4

Göztepe–Gaziantep FK

2–4

HT 0–4

Kick-off: Monday, 7 September 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'Gaziantep FKH. Dervişoğlu
10'Gaziantep FKM. Abena (assist: A. Maxim)
34'Gaziantep FKK. Kozłowski
45+1'Gaziantep FKK. Kozłowski (assist: A. Maxim)
51'GöztepeJuan Santos da Silva (assist: Janderson)
72'GöztepeO. Bayrak · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Göztepe		Gaziantep FK
19	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	6
16	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	3
2	Offsides	2
49%	Possession	51%
318	Passes	358
234	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Göztepe 1.89 · Gaziantep FK 0.99. On the pitch: 2-4.
Shots Göztepe 19 · Gaziantep FK 13; on target 4 and 6.

Announced lineup

Göztepe

Formation: 3-4-3 · Manager: S. Stoilov

Starting XI

L. Gugeshashviligoalkeeper
Malcom Bokeledefender
Ege Yildirimdefender
Taha Altıkardeşdefender
Richard Akonnormidfielder
N. Miroshimidfielder
Rhaldneymidfielder
Arda Kurtulanmidfielder
André Henriqueforward
Juan Santos da Silvaforward
Jandersonforward

Substitutes

A. Antunes

Unavailable players

Göztepe

A. Antunesout · not in squad
Allan Godoiout · injury
F. Bayirout · not in squad
G. Bayrakdarout · not in squad
I. Sabraout · Ankle Injury
N. Sonko Sundbergout · not in squad

Gaziantep FK

A. O. Kalinout · not in squad
F. Bavukout · injury
J. Bacunaout · red-card suspension
N. Sangareout · not in squad
S. Hansenout · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 06:11.

Referee

Umit Ozturk, Türkiye→

4.75

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.7%: “Göztepe to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.56 for Göztepe, 1.04 for Gaziantep FK.
The highest double chance value is 76.0% (1X — Göztepe win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,375 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Göztepe to win48.7%

Draw27.2%

Gaziantep FK to win24.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

90+3'GöztepeJuan Santos da Silva (penalty)

18	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Mehmet Şamil Öztürk

Gaziantep FK

Formation: 3-4-2-1 · Manager: O. Ak

Starting XI

K. Tobiaszgoalkeeper
U. Melekedefender
M. Abenadefender
A. Kızıldağdefender
K. Çalhanoğlumidfielder
V. Gidadomidfielder
K. Kozłowskimidfielder
Luis Pérezmidfielder
A. Maximmidfielder
D. Sorescumidfielder
H. Dervişoğluforward

Substitutes

A. Dadakdeniz
A. Sylla
D. Camara
E. Sarıkaya
M. Cihan
O. Özçiçek
S. Dursun
Sabahattin Destici
T. Stewart

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Monday, 7 September 2026 at 17:14.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Göztepe win or draw76.0%

12 — any result other than a draw72.8%

X2 — draw or Gaziantep FK win51.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–4

Göztepe lead at half-time49.5%

Level at half-time38.6%

Gaziantep FK lead at half-time11.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Göztepe ahead or level88.1%

12 — not level at half-time61.4%

X2 — level or Gaziantep FK ahead50.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1374 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Göztepe: at least 17Actual: 18
Gaziantep FK: at least 9Actual: 10

Corners

Göztepe: at least 5Actual: 8
Gaziantep FK: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (54.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Göztepe score1.89

Attack: Göztepe score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gaziantep FK's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.89 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Gaziantep FK score0.99

Attack: Gaziantep FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Göztepe's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–010.7%2–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1375 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 73 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.