Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 4

Başakşehir–Galatasaray

2–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 4 September 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'GalatasarayV. Osimhen (assist: Lucas Torreira)
66'BaşakşehirEldor Shomurodov (penalty)
71'GalatasarayLucas Torreira (assist: Ismail Jakobs)
76'BaşakşehirDavinson Sánchez (own goal)
79'BaşakşehirU. Bozok · red card
90'Galatasaray

Match statistics

Match statistics
Başakşehir		Galatasaray
12	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	5
2	Offsides	4
48%	Possession	52%
399	Passes	433
326	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Başakşehir 1.29 · Galatasaray 1.74. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Başakşehir 12 · Galatasaray 13; on target 3 and 6.

Unavailable players

Başakşehir

E. Viscaout · not in squad

Galatasaray

G. Guvencout · Muscle Injury
R. Leaodoubtful · Muscle Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 06:11.

Referee

K. Saglam→

4.92

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.3%: “Galatasaray to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.17 for Başakşehir, 2.12 for Galatasaray.
The highest double chance value is 81.2% (X2 — draw or Galatasaray win).
These values were computed from 1,368 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Başakşehir to win18.8%

Draw21.9%

Galatasaray to win59.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

90+8'Başakşehirunknown · red card

14	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Başakşehir win or draw40.7%

12 — any result other than a draw78.1%

X2 — draw or Galatasaray win81.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Başakşehir lead at half-time26.0%

Level at half-time44.0%

Galatasaray lead at half-time30.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Başakşehir ahead or level69.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or Galatasaray ahead74.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1367 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Başakşehir: at least 11Actual: 14
Galatasaray: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Başakşehir: at least 3Actual: 6
Galatasaray: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals64.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Başakşehir score1.29

Attack: Başakşehir score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Galatasaray concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Galatasaray score1.74

Attack: Galatasaray score 62% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Başakşehir's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.8%1–110.3%0–28.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1368 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 145 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.