Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 34

Union Berlin–FC Augsburg

4–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 16 May 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 37%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'Union BerlinA. Ilic (assist: A. Schäfer)
42'Union BerlinA. Ilic (assist: O. Burke)
54'Union BerlinA. Schäfer (assist: Livan Burcu)
89'Union BerlinJeong Woo-Yeong

Match statistics

Match statistics
Union Berlin		FC Augsburg
17	Shots	11
9	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	9
2	Offsides	3
49%	Possession	51%
450	Passes	448
376	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Union Berlin 1.57 · FC Augsburg 1.39. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Union Berlin 17 · FC Augsburg 11; on target 9 and 1.

Referee

Patrick Ittrich, Germany→

2.64

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.3%: “FC Augsburg to win”. Second comes “Union Berlin to win” at 37.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.80 for Union Berlin, 1.85 for FC Augsburg.
The highest double chance value is 76.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,215 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Union Berlin to win37.2%

Draw23.6%

FC Augsburg to win39.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	7

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Union Berlin lead at half-time24.4%

Level at half-time40.7%

FC Augsburg lead at half-time35.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Union Berlin ahead or level65.0%

12 — not level at half-time59.3%

X2 — level or FC Augsburg ahead75.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1215 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Union Berlin: at least 11Actual: 6
FC Augsburg: at least 9Actual: 7

Corners

Union Berlin: at least 5Actual: 4
FC Augsburg: at least 3Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Union Berlin score1.57

Attack: Union Berlin score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Augsburg's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Augsburg score1.39

Attack: FC Augsburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Union Berlin's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–19.6%1–28.7%2–18.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.