Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 34

Eintracht Frankfurt–VfB Stuttgart

2–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 16 May 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 22%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'VfB StuttgartJosé María Andrés Baixauli (assist: C. Fuhrich)
45'VfB StuttgartN. Nartey (assist: D. Undav)
72'Eintracht FrankfurtJ. Burkardt (penalty)
90'Eintracht FrankfurtJ. Burkardt (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eintracht Frankfurt		VfB Stuttgart
16	Shots	13
7	Shots on target	7
8	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	6
2	Offsides	1
57%	Possession	43%
476	Passes	368
376	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.54 · VfB Stuttgart 1.76. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Eintracht Frankfurt 16 · VfB Stuttgart 13; on target 7 and 7.
Eintracht Frankfurt kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Tobias Welz, Germany→

4.80

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.9%: “VfB Stuttgart to win”. Second comes “Eintracht Frankfurt to win” at 26.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for Eintracht Frankfurt, 2.24 for VfB Stuttgart.
The highest double chance value is 78.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,215 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eintracht Frankfurt to win26.3%

Draw21.8%

VfB Stuttgart to win51.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Eintracht Frankfurt lead at half-time31.1%

Level at half-time37.7%

VfB Stuttgart lead at half-time31.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Eintracht Frankfurt ahead or level68.8%

12 — not level at half-time62.3%

X2 — level or VfB Stuttgart ahead68.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1215 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 10Actual: 14
VfB Stuttgart: at least 8Actual: 12

Corners

Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 4Actual: 6
VfB Stuttgart: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eintracht Frankfurt score1.54

Attack: Eintracht Frankfurt score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfB Stuttgart's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfB Stuttgart score1.76

Attack: VfB Stuttgart score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Frankfurt's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–29.4%1–18.4%2–27.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.