Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 34

Bayer Leverkusen–Hamburger SV

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 16 May 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: BayArena, Leverkusen

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 15%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

61'Hamburger SVFábio Vieira (assist: N. Capaldo)
78'Bayer LeverkusenJarell Quansah (assist: Aleix García)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bayer Leverkusen		Hamburger SV
26	Shots	19
9	Shots on target	6
19	Shots inside the box	11
5	Goalkeeper saves	7
8	Corners	3
3	Offsides	0
60%	Possession	40%
585	Passes	404
527	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bayer Leverkusen 2.35 · Hamburger SV 0.97. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Bayer Leverkusen 26 · Hamburger SV 19; on target 9 and 6.
Bayer Leverkusen kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Tobias Stieler, Germany→

3.60

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.7%: “Bayer Leverkusen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.81 for Bayer Leverkusen, 1.05 for Hamburger SV.
The highest double chance value is 90.0% (1X — Bayer Leverkusen win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,215 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bayer Leverkusen to win74.7%

Draw15.3%

Hamburger SV to win10.0%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Bayer Leverkusen lead at half-time56.9%

Level at half-time31.8%

Hamburger SV lead at half-time11.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Bayer Leverkusen ahead or level88.7%

12 — not level at half-time68.2%

X2 — level or Hamburger SV ahead43.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1215 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bayer Leverkusen: at least 9Actual: 8
Hamburger SV: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Bayer Leverkusen: at least 6Actual: 8
Hamburger SV: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bayer Leverkusen score2.35

Attack: Bayer Leverkusen score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Hamburger SV's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hamburger SV score0.97

Attack: Hamburger SV score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bayer Leverkusen concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.5%3–19.1%2–08.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.