Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 34

Borussia Mönchengladbach–1899 Hoffenheim

4–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 16 May 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Borussia-Park, Monchengladbach

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 21%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'Borussia MönchengladbachH. Bolin (assist: W. Mohya)
23'Borussia MönchengladbachH. Tabakovic
46'1899 HoffenheimT. Lemperle · red card
81'Borussia MönchengladbachK. Diks (assist: N. Elvedi)
90'Borussia MönchengladbachR. Hack (assist: N. Elvedi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Borussia Mönchengladbach		1899 Hoffenheim
9	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	9
2	Offsides	1
44%	Possession	56%
392	Passes	485
327	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.50 · 1899 Hoffenheim 1.59. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Borussia Mönchengladbach 9 · 1899 Hoffenheim 11; on target 6 and 3.
1899 Hoffenheim kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Frank Willenborg, Germany→

3.90

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.4%: “1899 Hoffenheim to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.36 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 2.28 for 1899 Hoffenheim.
The highest double chance value is 79.5% (X2 — draw or 1899 Hoffenheim win).
These values were computed from 1,215 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Borussia Mönchengladbach to win20.5%

Draw21.1%

1899 Hoffenheim to win58.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	15

4	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–0

Borussia Mönchengladbach lead at half-time22.5%

Level at half-time36.8%

1899 Hoffenheim lead at half-time40.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Borussia Mönchengladbach ahead or level59.4%

12 — not level at half-time63.2%

X2 — level or 1899 Hoffenheim ahead77.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1215 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 8Actual: 11
1899 Hoffenheim: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 4Actual: 2
1899 Hoffenheim: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Borussia Mönchengladbach score1.50

Attack: Borussia Mönchengladbach score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1899 Hoffenheim's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1899 Hoffenheim score1.59

Attack: 1899 Hoffenheim score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.2%1–19.0%1–37.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.