Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 34

Werder Bremen–Borussia Dortmund

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 16 May 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Weserstadion, Bremen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

59'Borussia DortmundS. Guirassy (assist: J. Ryerson)
90'Borussia DortmundYan Couto (assist: K. Adeyemi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Werder Bremen		Borussia Dortmund
9	Shots	17
3	Shots on target	9
5	Shots inside the box	14
7	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	5
4	Offsides	0
51%	Possession	49%
515	Passes	485
438	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Werder Bremen 1.20 · Borussia Dortmund 1.83. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Werder Bremen 9 · Borussia Dortmund 17; on target 3 and 9.

Referee

Bastian Dankert, Germany→

2.86

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.9%: “Borussia Dortmund to win”. Second comes “Werder Bremen to win” at 29.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.55 for Werder Bremen, 1.96 for Borussia Dortmund.
The highest double chance value is 76.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,215 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Werder Bremen to win29.6%

Draw23.6%

Borussia Dortmund to win46.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	5

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Werder Bremen lead at half-time13.7%

Level at half-time37.9%

Borussia Dortmund lead at half-time48.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Werder Bremen ahead or level51.6%

12 — not level at half-time62.1%

X2 — level or Borussia Dortmund ahead86.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1215 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Werder Bremen: at least 9Actual: 8
Borussia Dortmund: at least 10Actual: 5

Corners

Werder Bremen: at least 4Actual: 4
Borussia Dortmund: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Werder Bremen score1.20

Attack: Werder Bremen score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Borussia Dortmund concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Borussia Dortmund score1.83

Attack: Borussia Dortmund score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Werder Bremen's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.83 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.2%1–29.8%2–27.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.