Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 34

SC Freiburg–RB Leipzig

4–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 16 May 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 38%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'SC FreiburgJ. Beste
26'SC FreiburgI. Matanović (assist: J. Manzambi)
33'RB LeipzigA. Ouedraogo (assist: Y. Diomande)
47'SC FreiburgM. Ginter (assist: J. Makengo)
75'SC FreiburgD. Scherhant (assist: I. Matanović)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Freiburg		RB Leipzig
11	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	10
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
41%	Possession	59%
346	Passes	490
280	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Freiburg 1.50 · RB Leipzig 1.69. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots SC Freiburg 11 · RB Leipzig 14; on target 5 and 6.
RB Leipzig kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Sascha Stegemann, Germany→

3.56

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.2%: “SC Freiburg to win”. Second comes “RB Leipzig to win” at 36.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for SC Freiburg, 1.63 for RB Leipzig.
The highest double chance value is 75.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,215 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Freiburg to win38.2%

Draw25.0%

RB Leipzig to win36.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

SC Freiburg lead at half-time21.6%

Level at half-time40.9%

RB Leipzig lead at half-time37.5%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Freiburg ahead or level62.5%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or RB Leipzig ahead78.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1215 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Freiburg: at least 8Actual: 13
RB Leipzig: at least 10Actual: 7

Corners

SC Freiburg: at least 4Actual: 1
RB Leipzig: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Freiburg score1.50

Attack: SC Freiburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: RB Leipzig's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals RB Leipzig score1.69

Attack: RB Leipzig score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: SC Freiburg's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%2–19.1%1–28.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.