Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 33

FSV Mainz 05–Union Berlin

1–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Mewa Arena, Mainz

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 21%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

38'Union BerlinA. Ilic (assist: A. Kemlein)
48'FSV Mainz 05S. Becker (assist: P. Nebel)
88'Union BerlinO. Burke (assist: A. Ilic)
90'Union BerlinJ. Juranović (assist: T. Skarke)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FSV Mainz 05		Union Berlin
14	Shots	16
3	Shots on target	9
10	Shots inside the box	12
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	8
2	Offsides	0
53%	Possession	47%
462	Passes	411
388	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FSV Mainz 05 1.86 · Union Berlin 1.11. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots FSV Mainz 05 14 · Union Berlin 16; on target 3 and 9.

Referee

Florian Exner, Germany→

4.67

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.1%: “FSV Mainz 05 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.12 for FSV Mainz 05, 1.26 for Union Berlin.
The highest double chance value is 79.3% (1X — FSV Mainz 05 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,214 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FSV Mainz 05 to win57.1%

Draw22.2%

Union Berlin to win20.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

FSV Mainz 05 lead at half-time52.5%

Level at half-time35.9%

Union Berlin lead at half-time11.6%

First-half double chance

1X — FSV Mainz 05 ahead or level88.4%

12 — not level at half-time64.1%

X2 — level or Union Berlin ahead47.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1214 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FSV Mainz 05: at least 9Actual: 11
Union Berlin: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

FSV Mainz 05: at least 5Actual: 7
Union Berlin: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FSV Mainz 05 score1.86

Attack: FSV Mainz 05 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Union Berlin's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.86 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Union Berlin score1.11

Attack: Union Berlin score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FSV Mainz 05's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.6%1–110.1%2–07.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.