Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 33

1. FC Köln–1. FC Heidenheim

1–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'1. FC HeidenheimJ. Schöppner (assist: A. Ibrahimović)
10'1. FC KölnM. Bülter (assist: T. Krauß)
28'1. FC HeidenheimA. Ibrahimović
72'1. FC HeidenheimJ. Schöppner

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Köln		1. FC Heidenheim
18	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	11
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	4
0	Offsides	3
66%	Possession	34%
561	Passes	278
489	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Köln 2.00 · 1. FC Heidenheim 1.31. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots 1. FC Köln 18 · 1. FC Heidenheim 11; on target 7 and 5.
1. FC Köln kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

Sven Jablonski, Germany→

3.11

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.7%: “1. FC Köln to win”. Second comes “1. FC Heidenheim to win” at 30.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.99 for 1. FC Köln, 1.60 for 1. FC Heidenheim.
The highest double chance value is 76.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,213 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Köln to win46.7%

Draw23.3%

1. FC Heidenheim to win30.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

1. FC Köln lead at half-time38.4%

Level at half-time40.2%

1. FC Heidenheim lead at half-time21.4%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Köln ahead or level78.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.8%

X2 — level or 1. FC Heidenheim ahead61.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1213 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Köln: at least 8Actual: 9
1. FC Heidenheim: at least 9Actual: 8

Corners

1. FC Köln: at least 5Actual: 6
1. FC Heidenheim: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Köln score2.00

Attack: 1. FC Köln score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Heidenheim concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.00 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Heidenheim score1.31

Attack: 1. FC Heidenheim score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Köln's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–19.8%2–19.6%2–27.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.