Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 33

VfB Stuttgart–Bayer Leverkusen

3–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 May 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: MHPArena, Stuttgart

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'Bayer LeverkusenAleix García (assist: Christian Kofane)
5'VfB StuttgartE. Demirović (assist: N. Nartey)
45'VfB StuttgartM. Mittelstädt (penalty)
58'VfB StuttgartD. Undav (assist: J. Leweling)

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfB Stuttgart		Bayer Leverkusen
20	Shots	6
9	Shots on target	5
13	Shots inside the box	4
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	6
3	Offsides	0
49%	Possession	51%
384	Passes	401
322	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfB Stuttgart 1.69 · Bayer Leverkusen 1.68. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots VfB Stuttgart 20 · Bayer Leverkusen 6; on target 9 and 5.

Referee

Robert Schröder, Germany→

4.30

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.6%: “VfB Stuttgart to win”. Second comes “Bayer Leverkusen to win” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.09 for VfB Stuttgart, 1.66 for Bayer Leverkusen.
The highest double chance value is 77.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,207 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfB Stuttgart to win47.6%

Draw22.7%

Bayer Leverkusen to win29.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

VfB Stuttgart lead at half-time32.0%

Level at half-time36.3%

Bayer Leverkusen lead at half-time31.7%

First-half double chance

1X — VfB Stuttgart ahead or level68.3%

12 — not level at half-time63.7%

X2 — level or Bayer Leverkusen ahead68.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1207 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

VfB Stuttgart: at least 9Actual: 13
Bayer Leverkusen: at least 9Actual: 8

Corners

VfB Stuttgart: at least 4Actual: 7
Bayer Leverkusen: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfB Stuttgart score1.69

Attack: VfB Stuttgart score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Bayer Leverkusen concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bayer Leverkusen score1.68

Attack: Bayer Leverkusen score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: VfB Stuttgart's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.3%1–19.0%2–27.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.