Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 33

FC Augsburg–Borussia Mönchengladbach

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 May 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: WWK Arena, Augsburg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'FC AugsburgM. Gregoritsch
42'FC AugsburgR. Fellhauer (assist: M. Kömür)
72'FC AugsburgM. Gregoritsch
90'Borussia MönchengladbachG. Reyna (assist: R. Reitz)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Augsburg		Borussia Mönchengladbach
15	Shots	16
10	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	7
3	Corners	2
3	Offsides	3
37%	Possession	63%
317	Passes	546
223	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Augsburg 1.58 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.38. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots FC Augsburg 15 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 16; on target 10 and 4.
Borussia Mönchengladbach kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Tobias Reichel, Germany→

3.67

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.7%: “FC Augsburg to win”. Second comes “Borussia Mönchengladbach to win” at 26.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.98 for FC Augsburg, 1.44 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
The highest double chance value is 76.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,207 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Augsburg to win49.7%

Draw23.5%

Borussia Mönchengladbach to win26.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

FC Augsburg lead at half-time34.4%

Level at half-time40.0%

Borussia Mönchengladbach lead at half-time25.6%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Augsburg ahead or level74.4%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or Borussia Mönchengladbach ahead65.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1207 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Augsburg: at least 10Actual: 11
Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

FC Augsburg: at least 4Actual: 3
Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Augsburg score1.58

Attack: FC Augsburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Borussia Mönchengladbach score1.38

Attack: Borussia Mönchengladbach score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Augsburg's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.4%2–110.1%2–27.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.