Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 33

1899 Hoffenheim–Werder Bremen

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 May 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: PreZero Arena, Sinsheim

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'Werder BremenY. Sugawara · red card
26'1899 HoffenheimB. Touré (assist: A. Kramarić)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1899 Hoffenheim		Werder Bremen
15	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	3
0	Offsides	0
72%	Possession	28%
684	Passes	267
597	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.90 · Werder Bremen 1.24. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots 1899 Hoffenheim 15 · Werder Bremen 11; on target 4 and 2.
1899 Hoffenheim kept the ball more (72%).

Referee

Sören Storks, Germany→

5.42

yellows per match

0.42

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.2%: “1899 Hoffenheim to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.38 for 1899 Hoffenheim, 1.19 for Werder Bremen.
The highest double chance value is 83.9% (1X — 1899 Hoffenheim win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,207 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1899 Hoffenheim to win64.2%

Draw19.7%

Werder Bremen to win16.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

4	Fouls	3

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

1899 Hoffenheim lead at half-time54.9%

Level at half-time33.3%

Werder Bremen lead at half-time11.7%

First-half double chance

1X — 1899 Hoffenheim ahead or level88.3%

12 — not level at half-time66.7%

X2 — level or Werder Bremen ahead45.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1207 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1899 Hoffenheim: at least 11Actual: 4
Werder Bremen: at least 9Actual: 3

Corners

1899 Hoffenheim: at least 5Actual: 8
Werder Bremen: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1899 Hoffenheim score1.90

Attack: 1899 Hoffenheim score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Werder Bremen's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.90 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Werder Bremen score1.24

Attack: Werder Bremen score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1899 Hoffenheim's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.5%1–18.8%3–18.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.