Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 32

SC Freiburg–VfL Wolfsburg

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

55'VfL WolfsburgKonstantinos Koulierakis (assist: C. Eriksen)
75'SC FreiburgP. Lienhart (assist: J. Manzambi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Freiburg		VfL Wolfsburg
11	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	7
2	Offsides	1
63%	Possession	37%
501	Passes	287
422	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Freiburg 1.90 · VfL Wolfsburg 1.21. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots SC Freiburg 11 · VfL Wolfsburg 13; on target 3 and 4.
SC Freiburg kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Bastian Dankert, Germany→

2.92

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.4%: “SC Freiburg to win”. Second comes “VfL Wolfsburg to win” at 28.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.73 for SC Freiburg, 1.33 for VfL Wolfsburg.
The highest double chance value is 74.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,205 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Freiburg to win46.4%

Draw25.4%

VfL Wolfsburg to win28.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

SC Freiburg lead at half-time36.1%

Level at half-time40.5%

VfL Wolfsburg lead at half-time23.4%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Freiburg ahead or level76.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.5%

X2 — level or VfL Wolfsburg ahead63.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1205 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Freiburg: at least 8Actual: 5
VfL Wolfsburg: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

SC Freiburg: at least 6Actual: 1
VfL Wolfsburg: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Freiburg score1.90

Attack: SC Freiburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfL Wolfsburg concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.90 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfL Wolfsburg score1.21

Attack: VfL Wolfsburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Freiburg's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%2–110.3%1–27.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.