Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 32

FC St. Pauli–FSV Mainz 05

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 37%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'FSV Mainz 05P. Tietz (assist: S. Becker)
40'FSV Mainz 05P. Mwene (assist: S. Widmer)
87'FC St. PauliAbdoulie Ceesay (assist: M. Kaars)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC St. Pauli		FSV Mainz 05
10	Shots	17
3	Shots on target	6
7	Shots inside the box	15
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	7
1	Offsides	4
52%	Possession	48%
494	Passes	465
413	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC St. Pauli 1.16 · FSV Mainz 05 1.54. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots FC St. Pauli 10 · FSV Mainz 05 17; on target 3 and 6.

Referee

Timo Gerach, Germany→

4.56

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.3%: “FSV Mainz 05 to win”. Second comes “FC St. Pauli to win” at 33.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for FC St. Pauli, 1.30 for FSV Mainz 05.
The highest double chance value is 71.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,203 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC St. Pauli to win33.9%

Draw28.8%

FSV Mainz 05 to win37.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	8

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

FC St. Pauli lead at half-time24.7%

Level at half-time43.7%

FSV Mainz 05 lead at half-time31.5%

First-half double chance

1X — FC St. Pauli ahead or level68.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or FSV Mainz 05 ahead75.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1203 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC St. Pauli: at least 9Actual: 10
FSV Mainz 05: at least 9Actual: 8

Corners

FC St. Pauli: at least 4Actual: 7
FSV Mainz 05: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC St. Pauli score1.16

Attack: FC St. Pauli score below the league average (39% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FSV Mainz 05's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FSV Mainz 05 score1.54

Attack: FSV Mainz 05 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC St. Pauli's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%0–19.4%1–29.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.