Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 32

Eintracht Frankfurt–Hamburger SV

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 20%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

48'Eintracht FrankfurtC. Uzun (assist: J. Burkardt)
51'Hamburger SVA. Grønbæk (assist: W. Omari)
59'Hamburger SVFábio Vieira (assist: A. Grønbæk)
90+12'Eintracht FrankfurtRasmus Kristensen · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eintracht Frankfurt		Hamburger SV
8	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	4
5	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
9	Corners	4
0	Offsides	2
64%	Possession	36%
502	Passes	291
431	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.99 · Hamburger SV 1.17. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Eintracht Frankfurt 8 · Hamburger SV 9; on target 5 and 4.
Eintracht Frankfurt kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

Deniz Aytekin, Germany→

4.08

yellows per match

0.42

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.1%: “Eintracht Frankfurt to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.07 for Eintracht Frankfurt, 1.22 for Hamburger SV.
The highest double chance value is 79.6% (1X — Eintracht Frankfurt win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,197 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eintracht Frankfurt to win57.1%

Draw22.5%

Hamburger SV to win20.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	5

6	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Eintracht Frankfurt lead at half-time45.0%

Level at half-time37.1%

Hamburger SV lead at half-time17.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Eintracht Frankfurt ahead or level82.1%

12 — not level at half-time62.9%

X2 — level or Hamburger SV ahead55.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1197 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 10Actual: 13
Hamburger SV: at least 10Actual: 5

Corners

Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 5Actual: 9
Hamburger SV: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eintracht Frankfurt score1.99

Attack: Eintracht Frankfurt score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hamburger SV's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.99 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hamburger SV score1.17

Attack: Hamburger SV score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Frankfurt's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.8%1–110.5%2–08.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.