Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 32

1899 Hoffenheim–VfB Stuttgart

3–3

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: PreZero Arena, Sinsheim

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'1899 HoffenheimA. Kramarić (assist: F. Asllani)
20'VfB StuttgartC. Fuhrich (assist: R. Hendriks)
23'1899 HoffenheimB. Touré
49'1899 HoffenheimA. Kramarić (assist: B. Touré)
64'VfB StuttgartE. Demirović (assist: J. Leweling)
69'VfB StuttgartA. Karazor

Match statistics

Match statistics
1899 Hoffenheim		VfB Stuttgart
22	Shots	14
9	Shots on target	5
13	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
4	Corners	5
2	Offsides	3
46%	Possession	54%
357	Passes	416
276	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.66 · VfB Stuttgart 1.68. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots 1899 Hoffenheim 22 · VfB Stuttgart 14; on target 9 and 5.

Referee

Sascha Stegemann, Germany→

3.53

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.5%: “1899 Hoffenheim to win”. Second comes “VfB Stuttgart to win” at 32.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.92 for 1899 Hoffenheim, 1.67 for VfB Stuttgart.
The highest double chance value is 76.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,197 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1899 Hoffenheim to win43.5%

Draw23.6%

VfB Stuttgart to win32.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–1

1899 Hoffenheim lead at half-time34.1%

Level at half-time36.5%

VfB Stuttgart lead at half-time29.4%

First-half double chance

1X — 1899 Hoffenheim ahead or level70.6%

12 — not level at half-time63.5%

X2 — level or VfB Stuttgart ahead65.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1197 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1899 Hoffenheim: at least 13Actual: 18
VfB Stuttgart: at least 8Actual: 9

Corners

1899 Hoffenheim: at least 5Actual: 4
VfB Stuttgart: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1899 Hoffenheim score1.66

Attack: 1899 Hoffenheim score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfB Stuttgart's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfB Stuttgart score1.68

Attack: VfB Stuttgart score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: 1899 Hoffenheim's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–19.9%2–19.3%1–28.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.