Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 31

Borussia Dortmund–SC Freiburg

4–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 April 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Dortmund

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'Borussia DortmundM. Beier (assist: R. Bensebaini)
14'Borussia DortmundS. Guirassy (assist: J. Brandt)
31'Borussia DortmundR. Bensebaini (assist: J. Ryerson)
87'Borussia DortmundFábio Silva

Match statistics

Match statistics
Borussia Dortmund		SC Freiburg
17	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	5
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	0
0	Offsides	2
61%	Possession	39%
548	Passes	358
467	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Borussia Dortmund 2.00 · SC Freiburg 1.08. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Borussia Dortmund 17 · SC Freiburg 7; on target 5 and 4.
Borussia Dortmund kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Robin Braun, Germany→

5.30

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.4%: “Borussia Dortmund to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.27 for Borussia Dortmund, 0.96 for SC Freiburg.
The highest double chance value is 87.0% (1X — Borussia Dortmund win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,196 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Borussia Dortmund to win67.4%

Draw19.6%

SC Freiburg to win13.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Borussia Dortmund lead at half-time41.3%

Level at half-time40.8%

SC Freiburg lead at half-time17.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Borussia Dortmund ahead or level82.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.2%

X2 — level or SC Freiburg ahead58.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1196 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Borussia Dortmund: at least 10Actual: 19
SC Freiburg: at least 9Actual: 10

Corners

Borussia Dortmund: at least 5
SC Freiburg: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Borussia Dortmund score2.00

Attack: Borussia Dortmund score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: SC Freiburg's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.00 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Freiburg score1.08

Attack: SC Freiburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Borussia Dortmund concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.8%2–010.4%1–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.