Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 31

VfB Stuttgart–Werder Bremen

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 April 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: MHPArena, Stuttgart

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 21%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'Werder BremenJ. Stage (assist: Y. Sugawara)
61'VfB StuttgartE. Demirović (assist: B. El Khannouss)

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfB Stuttgart		Werder Bremen
20	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
14	Corners	2
0	Offsides	1
69%	Possession	31%
663	Passes	313
588	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfB Stuttgart 2.09 · Werder Bremen 1.14. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots VfB Stuttgart 20 · Werder Bremen 9; on target 4 and 3.
VfB Stuttgart kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

Christian Dingert, Germany→

4.09

yellows per match

0.36

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.5%: “VfB Stuttgart to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.26 for VfB Stuttgart, 1.16 for Werder Bremen.
The highest double chance value is 83.1% (1X — VfB Stuttgart win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,195 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfB Stuttgart to win62.5%

Draw20.6%

Werder Bremen to win16.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

VfB Stuttgart lead at half-time55.5%

Level at half-time34.0%

Werder Bremen lead at half-time10.5%

First-half double chance

1X — VfB Stuttgart ahead or level89.5%

12 — not level at half-time66.0%

X2 — level or Werder Bremen ahead44.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1195 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

VfB Stuttgart: at least 9Actual: 8
Werder Bremen: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

VfB Stuttgart: at least 5Actual: 14
Werder Bremen: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfB Stuttgart score2.09

Attack: VfB Stuttgart score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Werder Bremen's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Werder Bremen score1.14

Attack: Werder Bremen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfB Stuttgart's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.7%1–19.5%2–08.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.