Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 31

1. FC Köln–Bayer Leverkusen

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

43'Bayer LeverkusenPatrik Schick (penalty)
52'Bayer LeverkusenPatrik Schick (assist: N. Tella)
77'1. FC KölnL. Waldschmidt (assist: S. El Mala)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Köln		Bayer Leverkusen
25	Shots	8
10	Shots on target	3
19	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	8
2	Corners	5
1	Offsides	2
45%	Possession	55%
459	Passes	574
390	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Köln 1.35 · Bayer Leverkusen 1.89. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots 1. FC Köln 25 · Bayer Leverkusen 8; on target 10 and 3.
Bayer Leverkusen kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Robert Hartmann, Germany→

3.85

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.9%: “Bayer Leverkusen to win”. Second comes “1. FC Köln to win” at 25.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for 1. FC Köln, 1.89 for Bayer Leverkusen.
The highest double chance value is 75.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,189 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Köln to win25.9%

Draw24.1%

Bayer Leverkusen to win49.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	5

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

1. FC Köln lead at half-time20.1%

Level at half-time36.6%

Bayer Leverkusen lead at half-time43.3%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Köln ahead or level56.7%

12 — not level at half-time63.4%

X2 — level or Bayer Leverkusen ahead79.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1189 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Köln: at least 8Actual: 11
Bayer Leverkusen: at least 9Actual: 5

Corners

1. FC Köln: at least 4Actual: 2
Bayer Leverkusen: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Köln score1.35

Attack: 1. FC Köln score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bayer Leverkusen concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bayer Leverkusen score1.89

Attack: Bayer Leverkusen score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Köln's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.3%1–210.4%2–17.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.