Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 31

FC Augsburg–Eintracht Frankfurt

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: WWK Arena, Augsburg

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

44'FC AugsburgA. Kade
66'Eintracht FrankfurtR. Doan (assist: C. Uzun)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Augsburg		Eintracht Frankfurt
17	Shots	19
3	Shots on target	7
13	Shots inside the box	10
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
9	Corners	7
1	Offsides	1
40%	Possession	60%
289	Passes	485
219	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Augsburg 1.49 · Eintracht Frankfurt 1.60. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots FC Augsburg 17 · Eintracht Frankfurt 19; on target 3 and 7.
Eintracht Frankfurt kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Harm Osmers, Germany→

5.00

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.9%: “FC Augsburg to win”. Second comes “Eintracht Frankfurt to win” at 35.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.70 for FC Augsburg, 1.59 for Eintracht Frankfurt.
The highest double chance value is 75.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,189 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Augsburg to win39.9%

Draw25.0%

Eintracht Frankfurt to win35.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

FC Augsburg lead at half-time22.1%

Level at half-time38.5%

Eintracht Frankfurt lead at half-time39.4%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Augsburg ahead or level60.6%

12 — not level at half-time61.5%

X2 — level or Eintracht Frankfurt ahead77.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1189 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Augsburg: at least 9Actual: 11
Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

FC Augsburg: at least 4Actual: 9
Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Augsburg score1.49

Attack: FC Augsburg score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Frankfurt's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eintracht Frankfurt score1.60

Attack: Eintracht Frankfurt score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Augsburg's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%2–19.3%1–28.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.