Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 31

FSV Mainz 05–Bayern München

3–4

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Mewa Arena, Mainz

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'FSV Mainz 05D. Kohr (assist: K. Sano)
29'FSV Mainz 05P. Nebel
45'FSV Mainz 05S. Becker
53'Bayern MünchenN. Jackson (assist: K. Laimer)
73'Bayern MünchenM. Olise (assist: K. Laimer)
80'Bayern MünchenJ. Musiala
83'

Match statistics

Match statistics
FSV Mainz 05		Bayern München
21	Shots	11
8	Shots on target	6
15	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
30%	Possession	70%
253	Passes	618
193	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FSV Mainz 05 1.07 · Bayern München 2.48. On the pitch: 3-4.
Shots FSV Mainz 05 21 · Bayern München 11; on target 8 and 6.
Bayern München kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

Martin Petersen, Germany→

4.27

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.7%: “Bayern München to win”. Second comes “FSV Mainz 05 to win” at 25.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for FSV Mainz 05, 2.15 for Bayern München.
The highest double chance value is 77.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,189 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FSV Mainz 05 to win25.0%

Draw22.3%

Bayern München to win52.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

FSV Mainz 05 lead at half-time13.0%

Level at half-time34.8%

Bayern München lead at half-time52.2%

First-half double chance

1X — FSV Mainz 05 ahead or level47.8%

12 — not level at half-time65.2%

X2 — level or Bayern München ahead87.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1189 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FSV Mainz 05: at least 9Actual: 14
Bayern München: at least 8Actual: 10

Corners

FSV Mainz 05: at least 3Actual: 4
Bayern München: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FSV Mainz 05 score1.07

Attack: FSV Mainz 05 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bayern München concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bayern München score2.48

Attack: Bayern München score 93% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: FSV Mainz 05's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.48 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–29.9%1–19.3%2–27.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.