Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 31

VfL Wolfsburg–Borussia Mönchengladbach

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90+2'Borussia MönchengladbachJ. Castrop · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfL Wolfsburg		Borussia Mönchengladbach
12	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	5
1	Offsides	4
44%	Possession	56%
394	Passes	523
303	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfL Wolfsburg 1.61 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.50. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots VfL Wolfsburg 12 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 10; on target 4 and 2.
Borussia Mönchengladbach kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Tobias Stieler, Germany→

3.58

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.4%: “VfL Wolfsburg to win”. Second comes “Borussia Mönchengladbach to win” at 30.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.69 for VfL Wolfsburg, 1.37 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
The highest double chance value is 74.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,189 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfL Wolfsburg to win44.4%

Draw25.6%

Borussia Mönchengladbach to win30.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	5

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

VfL Wolfsburg lead at half-time37.5%

Level at half-time38.5%

Borussia Mönchengladbach lead at half-time24.0%

First-half double chance

1X — VfL Wolfsburg ahead or level76.0%

12 — not level at half-time61.5%

X2 — level or Borussia Mönchengladbach ahead62.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1189 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

VfL Wolfsburg: at least 10Actual: 11
Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 9Actual: 5

Corners

VfL Wolfsburg: at least 4Actual: 8
Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfL Wolfsburg score1.61

Attack: VfL Wolfsburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Borussia Mönchengladbach score1.50

Attack: Borussia Mönchengladbach score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfL Wolfsburg concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%2–110.1%1–28.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.