Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 31

RB Leipzig–Union Berlin

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 24 April 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'RB LeipzigMax Finkgräfe
25'RB LeipzigRomulo Cardoso
63'RB LeipzigR. Baku (assist: Y. Diomande)
78'Union BerlinD. Doekhi (assist: J. Juranović)

Match statistics

Match statistics
RB Leipzig		Union Berlin
20	Shots	5
10	Shots on target	1
14	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	6
10	Corners	4
1	Offsides	3
67%	Possession	33%
602	Passes	296
524	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: RB Leipzig 2.04 · Union Berlin 1.07. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots RB Leipzig 20 · Union Berlin 5; on target 10 and 1.
RB Leipzig kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

Sven Jablonski, Germany→

3.17

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.0%: “RB Leipzig to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.11 for RB Leipzig, 1.00 for Union Berlin.
The highest double chance value is 84.4% (1X — RB Leipzig win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,188 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

RB Leipzig to win63.0%

Draw21.4%

Union Berlin to win15.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

RB Leipzig lead at half-time59.5%

Level at half-time32.9%

Union Berlin lead at half-time7.5%

First-half double chance

1X — RB Leipzig ahead or level92.5%

12 — not level at half-time67.1%

X2 — level or Union Berlin ahead40.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1188 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

RB Leipzig: at least 8Actual: 6
Union Berlin: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

RB Leipzig: at least 5Actual: 10
Union Berlin: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals RB Leipzig score2.04

Attack: RB Leipzig score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Union Berlin's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.04 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Union Berlin score1.07

Attack: Union Berlin score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: RB Leipzig's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–111.0%1–110.5%2–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.