Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 30

Borussia Mönchengladbach–FSV Mainz 05

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Borussia-Park, Monchengladbach

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'Borussia MönchengladbachJ. Scally (assist: H. Bolin)
90'FSV Mainz 05N. Amiri (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Borussia Mönchengladbach		FSV Mainz 05
9	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	7
7	Shots inside the box	10
6	Goalkeeper saves	3
0	Corners	6
0	Offsides	2
38%	Possession	62%
366	Passes	588
289	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.52 · FSV Mainz 05 1.46. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Borussia Mönchengladbach 9 · FSV Mainz 05 17; on target 4 and 7.
FSV Mainz 05 kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Tobias Welz, Germany→

4.69

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.3%: “Borussia Mönchengladbach to win”. Second comes “FSV Mainz 05 to win” at 30.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.51 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 1.26 for FSV Mainz 05.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,187 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Borussia Mönchengladbach to win42.3%

Draw27.2%

FSV Mainz 05 to win30.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	8

5	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Borussia Mönchengladbach lead at half-time27.8%

Level at half-time40.3%

FSV Mainz 05 lead at half-time32.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Borussia Mönchengladbach ahead or level68.0%

12 — not level at half-time59.7%

X2 — level or FSV Mainz 05 ahead72.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1187 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 9Actual: 12
FSV Mainz 05: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 4
FSV Mainz 05: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Borussia Mönchengladbach score1.52

Attack: Borussia Mönchengladbach score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FSV Mainz 05's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FSV Mainz 05 score1.46

Attack: FSV Mainz 05 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–19.9%1–08.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.