Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 30

Union Berlin–VfL Wolfsburg

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 April 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'VfL WolfsburgP. Wimmer (assist: J. Mæhle)
46'VfL WolfsburgD. Pejčinović (assist: C. Eriksen)
85'Union BerlinO. Burke (assist: A. Ilic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Union Berlin		VfL Wolfsburg
25	Shots	5
7	Shots on target	4
17	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
11	Corners	4
0	Offsides	1
54%	Possession	46%
433	Passes	399
331	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Union Berlin 1.69 · VfL Wolfsburg 1.32. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Union Berlin 25 · VfL Wolfsburg 5; on target 7 and 4.

Referee

Florian Badstubner, Germany→

2.54

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.0%: “Union Berlin to win”. Second comes “VfL Wolfsburg to win” at 29.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for Union Berlin, 1.27 for VfL Wolfsburg.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,180 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Union Berlin to win44.0%

Draw26.7%

VfL Wolfsburg to win29.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Union Berlin lead at half-time25.7%

Level at half-time40.4%

VfL Wolfsburg lead at half-time33.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Union Berlin ahead or level66.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.6%

X2 — level or VfL Wolfsburg ahead74.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1180 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Union Berlin: at least 10Actual: 13
VfL Wolfsburg: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

Union Berlin: at least 6Actual: 11
VfL Wolfsburg: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Union Berlin score1.69

Attack: Union Berlin score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: VfL Wolfsburg concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfL Wolfsburg score1.32

Attack: VfL Wolfsburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Union Berlin's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%2–110.1%1–08.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.