Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 30

Werder Bremen–Hamburger SV

3–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 April 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Weserstadion, Bremen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

37'Werder BremenJ. Stage (assist: Y. Sugawara)
41'Hamburger SVR. Glatzel (assist: N. Capaldo)
57'Werder BremenJ. Stage (assist: C. Puertas)
79'Hamburger SVP. Otele · red card
90'Werder BremenC. Puertas (assist: Romano Schmid)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Werder Bremen		Hamburger SV
18	Shots	11
10	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	7
7	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
57%	Possession	43%
446	Passes	341
359	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Werder Bremen 1.74 · Hamburger SV 1.24. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Werder Bremen 18 · Hamburger SV 11; on target 10 and 3.
Werder Bremen kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Florian Exner, Germany→

4.45

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.3%: “Werder Bremen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.80 for Werder Bremen, 1.11 for Hamburger SV.
The highest double chance value is 78.1% (1X — Werder Bremen win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,180 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Werder Bremen to win53.3%

Draw24.8%

Hamburger SV to win21.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	14

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–1

Werder Bremen lead at half-time26.6%

Level at half-time42.5%

Hamburger SV lead at half-time30.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Werder Bremen ahead or level69.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or Hamburger SV ahead73.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1180 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Werder Bremen: at least 10Actual: 14
Hamburger SV: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

Werder Bremen: at least 5Actual: 7
Hamburger SV: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Werder Bremen score1.74

Attack: Werder Bremen score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hamburger SV's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hamburger SV score1.24

Attack: Hamburger SV score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Werder Bremen's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%2–110.8%1–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.