Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 29

FC St. Pauli–Bayern München

0–5

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 April 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'Bayern MünchenJ. Musiala (assist: K. Laimer)
53'Bayern MünchenL. Goretzka
55'Bayern MünchenM. Olise (assist: L. Goretzka)
65'Bayern MünchenN. Jackson (assist: J. Musiala)
88'Bayern MünchenR. Guerreiro

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC St. Pauli		Bayern München
6	Shots	20
3	Shots on target	8
4	Shots inside the box	16
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	4
2	Offsides	3
23%	Possession	77%
272	Passes	946
200	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC St. Pauli 0.75 · Bayern München 2.52. On the pitch: 0-5.
Shots FC St. Pauli 6 · Bayern München 20; on target 3 and 8.
Bayern München kept the ball more (77%).

Referee

Tobias Stieler, Germany→

3.61

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 72.7%: “Bayern München to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.92 for FC St. Pauli, 2.51 for Bayern München.
The highest double chance value is 89.7% (X2 — draw or Bayern München win).
These values were computed from 1,175 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC St. Pauli to win10.3%

Draw17.0%

Bayern München to win72.7%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

FC St. Pauli lead at half-time12.8%

Level at half-time37.3%

Bayern München lead at half-time49.9%

First-half double chance

1X — FC St. Pauli ahead or level50.1%

12 — not level at half-time62.7%

X2 — level or Bayern München ahead87.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1175 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC St. Pauli: at least 8Actual: 9
Bayern München: at least 8Actual: 7

Corners

FC St. Pauli: at least 3Actual: 3
Bayern München: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC St. Pauli score0.75

Attack: FC St. Pauli score below the league average (38% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bayern München concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.75 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bayern München score2.52

Attack: Bayern München score 88% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: FC St. Pauli's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.52 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–210.4%1–210.3%0–38.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.