Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 29

1. FC Heidenheim–Union Berlin

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 April 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Voith-Arena, Heidenheim

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'1. FC HeidenheimM. Honsak (assist: M. Pieringer)
36'1. FC HeidenheimM. Honsak (assist: P. Mainka)
75'Union BerlinL. Querfeld (assist: R. Khedira)
79'1. FC HeidenheimB. Zivzivadze (assist: J. Schöppner)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Heidenheim		Union Berlin
7	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
3	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
333	Passes	402
237	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.45 · Union Berlin 1.46. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots 1. FC Heidenheim 7 · Union Berlin 10; on target 3 and 3.
Union Berlin kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Christian Dingert, Germany→

4.30

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.1%: “Union Berlin to win”. Second comes “1. FC Heidenheim to win” at 34.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for 1. FC Heidenheim, 1.40 for Union Berlin.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,171 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Heidenheim to win34.2%

Draw27.8%

Union Berlin to win38.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

1. FC Heidenheim lead at half-time26.7%

Level at half-time42.5%

Union Berlin lead at half-time30.9%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Heidenheim ahead or level69.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or Union Berlin ahead73.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1171 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 9Actual: 7
Union Berlin: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 4Actual: 3
Union Berlin: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Heidenheim score1.45

Attack: 1. FC Heidenheim score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Union Berlin's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Union Berlin score1.46

Attack: Union Berlin score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Heidenheim concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–29.3%2–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.