Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 29

VfL Wolfsburg–Eintracht Frankfurt

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 April 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 36%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'Eintracht FrankfurtO. Hojlund (assist: A. Amaimouni)
32'Eintracht FrankfurtA. Kalimuendo
90'VfL WolfsburgD. Pejčinović (assist: A. Daghim)

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfL Wolfsburg		Eintracht Frankfurt
22	Shots	10
7	Shots on target	4
13	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
7	Corners	7
1	Offsides	2
51%	Possession	49%
445	Passes	450
353	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfL Wolfsburg 1.50 · Eintracht Frankfurt 1.75. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots VfL Wolfsburg 22 · Eintracht Frankfurt 10; on target 7 and 4.

Referee

Timo Gerach, Germany→

4.75

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.3%: “VfL Wolfsburg to win”. Second comes “Eintracht Frankfurt to win” at 36.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for VfL Wolfsburg, 1.56 for Eintracht Frankfurt.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,171 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfL Wolfsburg to win38.3%

Draw25.5%

Eintracht Frankfurt to win36.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

VfL Wolfsburg lead at half-time29.5%

Level at half-time38.8%

Eintracht Frankfurt lead at half-time31.7%

First-half double chance

1X — VfL Wolfsburg ahead or level68.3%

12 — not level at half-time61.2%

X2 — level or Eintracht Frankfurt ahead70.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1171 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

VfL Wolfsburg: at least 9Actual: 9
Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 9Actual: 8

Corners

VfL Wolfsburg: at least 4Actual: 7
Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfL Wolfsburg score1.50

Attack: VfL Wolfsburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Frankfurt's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eintracht Frankfurt score1.75

Attack: Eintracht Frankfurt score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfL Wolfsburg concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.75 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%2–19.3%1–29.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.