Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 28

Union Berlin–FC St. Pauli

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 April 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'FC St. PauliMathias Pereira Lage
52'Union BerlinA. Ilic (assist: D. Kohn)
90+3'FC St. PauliJ. Irvine · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Union Berlin		FC St. Pauli
16	Shots	9
8	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	8
7	Corners	2
3	Offsides	0
55%	Possession	45%
445	Passes	381
325	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Union Berlin 1.47 · FC St. Pauli 1.07. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Union Berlin 16 · FC St. Pauli 9; on target 8 and 2.
Union Berlin kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Tobias Welz, Germany→

4.92

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.6%: “Union Berlin to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for Union Berlin, 0.94 for FC St. Pauli.
The highest double chance value is 75.9% (1X — Union Berlin win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,168 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Union Berlin to win46.6%

Draw29.2%

FC St. Pauli to win24.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–1

Union Berlin lead at half-time28.2%

Level at half-time44.7%

FC St. Pauli lead at half-time27.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Union Berlin ahead or level72.9%

12 — not level at half-time55.3%

X2 — level or FC St. Pauli ahead71.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1168 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Union Berlin: at least 10Actual: 10
FC St. Pauli: at least 9Actual: 8

Corners

Union Berlin: at least 4Actual: 7
FC St. Pauli: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Union Berlin score1.47

Attack: Union Berlin score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC St. Pauli's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC St. Pauli score1.07

Attack: FC St. Pauli score below the league average (37% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Union Berlin's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–012.9%2–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.