Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 28

Hamburger SV–FC Augsburg

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'FC AugsburgArthur Chaves
60'Hamburger SVR. Königsdörffer (assist: R. Glatzel)
64'Hamburger SVM. Muheim · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hamburger SV		FC Augsburg
18	Shots	18
4	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	15
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
9	Corners	2
0	Offsides	2
53%	Possession	47%
395	Passes	358
334	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hamburger SV 1.65 · FC Augsburg 1.31. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Hamburger SV 18 · FC Augsburg 18; on target 4 and 3.

Referee

Deniz Aytekin, Germany→

4.10

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.1%: “Hamburger SV to win”. Second comes “FC Augsburg to win” at 32.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for Hamburger SV, 1.34 for FC Augsburg.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,161 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hamburger SV to win40.1%

Draw27.0%

FC Augsburg to win32.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Hamburger SV lead at half-time43.7%

Level at half-time39.3%

FC Augsburg lead at half-time17.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Hamburger SV ahead or level83.0%

12 — not level at half-time60.7%

X2 — level or FC Augsburg ahead56.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1161 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hamburger SV: at least 10Actual: 12
FC Augsburg: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Hamburger SV: at least 4Actual: 9
FC Augsburg: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hamburger SV score1.65

Attack: Hamburger SV score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Augsburg's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Augsburg score1.31

Attack: FC Augsburg score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hamburger SV's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%2–19.6%1–28.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.