Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 28

SC Freiburg–Bayern München

2–3

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

46'SC FreiburgJ. Manzambi (assist: M. Eggestein)
71'SC FreiburgL. Höler
81'Bayern MünchenT. Bischof (assist: L. Karl)
90'Bayern MünchenT. Bischof (assist: M. Olise)
90'Bayern MünchenL. Karl (assist: A. Davies)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Freiburg		Bayern München
13	Shots	21
4	Shots on target	9
9	Shots inside the box	11
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	8
4	Offsides	1
30%	Possession	70%
255	Passes	632
188	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Freiburg 1.08 · Bayern München 2.39. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots SC Freiburg 13 · Bayern München 21; on target 4 and 9.
Bayern München kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

Daniel Siebert, Germany→

2.92

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.2%: “Bayern München to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.12 for SC Freiburg, 2.25 for Bayern München.
The highest double chance value is 83.8% (X2 — draw or Bayern München win).
These values were computed from 1,161 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Freiburg to win16.2%

Draw20.6%

Bayern München to win63.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

SC Freiburg lead at half-time15.5%

Level at half-time36.6%

Bayern München lead at half-time47.9%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Freiburg ahead or level52.1%

12 — not level at half-time63.4%

X2 — level or Bayern München ahead84.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1161 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Freiburg: at least 8Actual: 9
Bayern München: at least 9Actual: 13

Corners

SC Freiburg: at least 3Actual: 5
Bayern München: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Freiburg score1.08

Attack: SC Freiburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bayern München concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bayern München score2.39

Attack: Bayern München score 88% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: SC Freiburg's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.8%1–19.6%0–28.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.