Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 27

FC Augsburg–VfB Stuttgart

2–5

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 March 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: WWK Arena, Augsburg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'VfB StuttgartD. Undav
29'VfB StuttgartT. Tomas (assist: N. Nartey)
31'VfB StuttgartN. Nartey (assist: M. Mittelstädt)
57'FC AugsburgF. Rieder
58'VfB StuttgartD. Undav
71'FC AugsburgA. Kade
83'

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Augsburg		VfB Stuttgart
13	Shots	13
7	Shots on target	8
7	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
2	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
40%	Possession	60%
364	Passes	573
288	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Augsburg 1.33 · VfB Stuttgart 1.77. On the pitch: 2-5.
Shots FC Augsburg 13 · VfB Stuttgart 13; on target 7 and 8.
VfB Stuttgart kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Felix Zwayer, Germany→

4.86

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.6%: “VfB Stuttgart to win”. Second comes “FC Augsburg to win” at 27.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for FC Augsburg, 1.79 for VfB Stuttgart.
The highest double chance value is 75.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,160 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Augsburg to win27.5%

Draw24.9%

VfB Stuttgart to win47.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–3

FC Augsburg lead at half-time19.5%

Level at half-time39.1%

VfB Stuttgart lead at half-time41.3%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Augsburg ahead or level58.7%

12 — not level at half-time60.9%

X2 — level or VfB Stuttgart ahead80.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1160 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Augsburg: at least 11Actual: 11
VfB Stuttgart: at least 9Actual: 14

Corners

FC Augsburg: at least 4Actual: 2
VfB Stuttgart: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Augsburg score1.33

Attack: FC Augsburg score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: VfB Stuttgart's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfB Stuttgart score1.77

Attack: VfB Stuttgart score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Augsburg's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.77 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%1–210.3%2–17.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.